CAJ | 학술논문

国际古气候模拟比较计划(PMIP)是古气候领域里的一项长期开展的大型国际研究计划.该计划的主旨是利用气候数值模式,通过开展一系列针对古气候变化的模拟试验理解全球气候变化的机理,确定气候系统内部的各种影响气候变化的关键反馈因子;通过比较不同气候模式对不同于现代气候(古气候)的模拟能力评价模式的优劣,进而促进气候模式的发展;同时也为全球变化背景下利用气候模式预估未来气候变化提供借鉴.PMIP白1991年酝酿开始至今经历了PMIP1(1991～2001年)、PMlP2(2002～2007年)两个阶段,并正在开展第三阶段(PMfP3)(2008～)的研究.本文简要回顾了近10年来PMIP研究进展及概述了未来PMIP将要开展研究的重点领域和方向,主要包括4个主题:1)基准(benchmak)时段(6kaB.P.和21kaB.P.)模拟;2)间冰期和温暖期气候模拟;3)快速气候变化模拟;4)不确定性研究.
국제고기후모의비교계화(PMIP)시고기후영역리적일항장기개전적대형국제연구계화.해계화적주지시이용기후수치모식,통과개전일계렬침대고기후변화적모의시험리해전구기후변화적궤리,학정기후계통내부적각충영향기후변화적관건반궤인자;통과비교불동기후모식대불동우현대기후(고기후)적모의능력평개모식적우렬,진이촉진기후모식적발전;동시야위전구변화배경하이용기후모식예고미래기후변화제공차감.PMIP백1991년온양개시지금경력료PMIP1(1991～2001년)、PMlP2(2002～2007년)량개계단,병정재개전제삼계단(PMfP3)(2008～)적연구.본문간요회고료근10년래PMIP연구진전급개술료미래PMIP장요개전연구적중점영역화방향,주요포괄4개주제:1)기준(benchmak)시단(6kaB.P.화21kaB.P.)모의;2)간빙기화온난기기후모의;3)쾌속기후변화모의;4)불학정성연구.
The Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP)is a long standing initiative endorsed by both WCRP/CLIVAR/WGCM and PAGES. It has provided an efficient mechanism for coordinating paleoclimate modeling and data activities to facilitated valuable discoveries on the mechanisms of climate change, the identification of key feedbacks operating in the climate system and, through model evaluation, the capability of climate models to reproduce climates different from today. Two phases of PMIP have passed since PMIP was launched in 1991, I. E. Phase 1 (1991 ～ 2001) and phase 2 (2002 ～ 2007). The third phase (phase 3) of PMIP has been kicked off since 2008. This paper reviews the advances of PMIP in the last 10 years and summarizes its key themes of future research plan which include 1) Evaluation of earth system models at 6kaB. P. And 21kaB. P. (Theme 1), 2)Experiments on interglacials and warm periods (Theme 2), 3)Research on abrupt climate changes (Theme 3)as well as 4)Uncertainties: characterization and understanding(Theme 4).