CAJ | 학술논문

利用中国东部季风区375个测站,1961-2006年历年平均地面气温资料,采用EOF、SVD、相关分析等方法,分析了中国东部季风区冬季气温与500hPa高度场异常变化的关系.结果表明:影响冬季气温的关键区有两个,皆为显著正相关;SVD分析表明:乌山脊弱,东亚槽浅,纬向环流偏强,经向环流偏弱,极涡面积偏小,使南下冷空气偏少,冬季气温易偏高.上年7月北大西洋高压异常偏强(偏弱),次年冬季气温将会异常偏暖(偏冷),北大西洋前期高度场与气温普遍有密切的关系,主要影响长江流域及其以北的季风中北部区; 建立了气温距平与北大西洋关键区上年7月高度距平的关系,并建立了均生函数模型,预测了未来20 a的气温变化趋势.
이용중국동부계풍구375개측참,1961-2006년력년평균지면기온자료,채용EOF、SVD、상관분석등방법,분석료중국동부계풍구동계기온여500hPa고도장이상변화적관계.결과표명:영향동계기온적관건구유량개,개위현저정상관;SVD분석표명:오산척약,동아조천,위향배류편강,경향배류편약,겁와면적편소,사남하랭공기편소,동계기온역편고.상년7월북대서양고압이상편강(편약),차년동계기온장회이상편난(편랭),북대서양전기고도장여기온보편유밀절적관계,주요영향장강류역급기이북적계풍중북부구; 건립료기온거평여북대서양관건구상년7월고도거평적관계,병건립료균생함수모형,예측료미래20 a적기온변화추세.
Using the mean surface air temperature data during 1961-2006 of 375 stations in the east monsoon area in China and methods of EOF,SVD,correlation analysis, average value generating function method, the authors analyzed the relationship of temperature with height-field changes anomaly at 500 hPa and circulation feature in east China, and forecasted the change tendency of winter average air temperature in the future 20 a. The main results are as follows: there are two key areas which influence winter air temperature, both of the areas were remarkable positive correlation; the SVD analysis shows that the Ural ridge was weak, the east Asia trough was shallow, the zonal circulation was strong, the meridional circulation was weak, the area of polar vorticity was small, leading cold air was lack, winter temperature was high as well, namely the North Atlantic Ocean high pressure was exceptionally strong(weak) in last July, the temperature was high(low)in winter of the year, there were close relation to antecedent height-field and temperature in North Atlantic Ocean, it mainly influenced changing valley and middle-north monsoon area in north of it;it established the relationship between temperature and height departures in North Atlantic Ocean key area in the last July, and established function mode, which can be used to forecast the temperature change tendency in the future 20 a.