吉林金融研究
吉林金融研究
길림금융연구
JILIN FINANCE RESEARCH
2013年
5期
9-13
,共5页
宏观审慎政策%金融稳定%金融风险%区域经济%神经网络模型
宏觀審慎政策%金融穩定%金融風險%區域經濟%神經網絡模型
굉관심신정책%금융은정%금융풍험%구역경제%신경망락모형
Macro Prudent Policy%Financial Stability%Financial Risk%Regional Economy%Neural Network Model
牢守不发生系统性、区域性风险底线是金融稳定和金融监测、预警的重要任务。区域性金融风险预警的关键是合理选择风险指标。区域性金融风险指标选择既要考虑金融风险因素的普遍性，更要考虑金融发展的区域性，充分体现本地区金融发展的阶段性特征。结合广东发展的特点，选取反映区域性金融风险指标，利用因子分析法找出风险主要因子，并用神经网络进行风险预测预警，为防范区域性金融风险提供数量性决策依据。
牢守不髮生繫統性、區域性風險底線是金融穩定和金融鑑測、預警的重要任務。區域性金融風險預警的關鍵是閤理選擇風險指標。區域性金融風險指標選擇既要攷慮金融風險因素的普遍性，更要攷慮金融髮展的區域性，充分體現本地區金融髮展的階段性特徵。結閤廣東髮展的特點，選取反映區域性金融風險指標，利用因子分析法找齣風險主要因子，併用神經網絡進行風險預測預警，為防範區域性金融風險提供數量性決策依據。
뢰수불발생계통성、구역성풍험저선시금융은정화금융감측、예경적중요임무。구역성금융풍험예경적관건시합리선택풍험지표。구역성금융풍험지표선택기요고필금융풍험인소적보편성，경요고필금융발전적구역성，충분체현본지구금융발전적계단성특정。결합엄동발전적특점，선취반영구역성금융풍험지표，이용인자분석법조출풍험주요인자，병용신경망락진행풍험예측예경，위방범구역성금융풍험제공수량성결책의거。
To prison not systemic and regional risks is an important task of financial stability and financial monitoring, early warning. The key regional early warning ifnancial risk is to choose a reasonable risk index. Financial risk index of regional choice should not only consider the general financial risk factors, but also consider the regional ifnancial development, fully embodies the characteristics of ifnancial development in the region of the stage. In this paper, combined with the characteristics of Guangdong development, selected to relfect ifnancial risk index of regional, analysis to ifnd the main factors by factor of risk, and risk prediction by neural network, in order to provide quantitative basis for decision-making to prevent regional ifnancial risk.
