CAJ | 학술논문

基于海湾环境容量价值影响因素的分析,采用环境经济学的影子工程法,结合水动力数值模型及其与污染物扩散的耦合模型,建立了围填海导致的海湾环境容量价值损失的预测评估模型和方法,并以厦门同安湾为例,对同安湾4个围填海规划方案可能造成的环境容量价值的损失进行了预测评估.结果表明,方案1～方案4围填海面积依次为1.98,7.73,9.38,19.24km~2,围填海造成的环境容量的损失依次为12281.3,48418.6,60706.6,132800.1万元/a,单位面积的损失依次为62.03,62.64,64.72,69.02元/(m~2·a).围填海活动带来的环境成本不容忽视.基于评估结果,针对厦门围填海的现状提出了相关的政策建议.
기우해만배경용량개치영향인소적분석,채용배경경제학적영자공정법,결합수동력수치모형급기여오염물확산적우합모형,건립료위전해도치적해만배경용량개치손실적예측평고모형화방법,병이하문동안만위례,대동안만4개위전해규화방안가능조성적배경용량개치적손실진행료예측평고.결과표명,방안1～방안4위전해면적의차위1.98,7.73,9.38,19.24km~2,위전해조성적배경용량적손실의차위12281.3,48418.6,60706.6,132800.1만원/a,단위면적적손실의차위62.03,62.64,64.72,69.02원/(m~2·a).위전해활동대래적배경성본불용홀시.기우평고결과,침대하문위전해적현상제출료상관적정책건의.
Based on an analysis of factors affecting the value of bay environmental capacity，a model evaluating the lost value of bay environmental capacity caused by sea reclamation was established using Shadow Project Method in environmental economics combined with hydrodynamic numerical model and hydrodynamic force-contaminant diffusion coupling model.The evaluation model was then applied to a case study of four planned sea reclamation projects in Tong'an Bay，Xiamen.The lost value of environmental capacity caused by projects 1 to 4 would be 1.23×10~8，4.84×10~8，6.07×10~8，1.33×10~9 Yuan/a，respectively；and the lost value per unit area would be 62.03，62.64，64.72，69.02 Yuan/(m~2·a)， respectively.These environmental costs should be carefully examined in relevant project evaluations.Policy recommendations were presented according to the study results and current status of sea reclamation in Xiamen.