CAJ | 학술논문

按照中国大陆及邻近地区活动地块和地震带的划分方案, 使用Mapsis软件选取了汾渭地震带1000年以来M_S4.7以上地震, 这样的地震资料应具有地质单元的统一性. 使用数学中19阶多项式模型, 对地震资料进行最佳逼近拟合, 并递推未来1-2年时间尺度预测. 模型中的参数用最小二乘法求取. 引用一种数学方法来描述汾渭地震带的地震趋势规律.
안조중국대륙급린근지구활동지괴화지진대적화분방안, 사용Mapsis연건선취료분위지진대1000년이래M_S4.7이상지진, 저양적지진자료응구유지질단원적통일성. 사용수학중19계다항식모형, 대지진자료진행최가핍근의합, 병체추미래1-2년시간척도예측. 모형중적삼수용최소이승법구취. 인용일충수학방법래묘술분위지진대적지진추세규률.
According to the structure division result of active block and seismic zone, we select the M_S≥4.7 earthquakes the Fenwei seismic zone using MAPSIS software. This data may have the characteristic of one geology unit. Using the 19-order non-linear mathmatical polynomial whose correlation coefficients can be obtained by the method of least squares, we made optimum approaches to data by fitting, and made a prediction of seismic tendency in 1 to 2 years′ time. This provides a mathematical model prediction method to describe the rule of seismic tendency in the Fenwei seismic zone.