经济数学
經濟數學
경제수학
MATHEMATICS IN ECONOMICS
2010年
1期
105-110
,共6页
Logistic曲线%参数估计%回归%拟合%预测
Logistic麯線%參數估計%迴歸%擬閤%預測
Logistic곡선%삼수고계%회귀%의합%예측
Logistic curve%parameter estimation%regressive%fitting%forecast
分析了Logistic函数的解析性质,得到了由线上三个关键点和三个不同的增长阶段,利用差分和最小二乘法,给出了Logistic模型的一种便于使用的参数估计方法.并通过实例,建立Logistic模型对我国城镇居民家庭平均每百户彩色电视机拥有量的增长变化趋势进行了分析和预测.
分析瞭Logistic函數的解析性質,得到瞭由線上三箇關鍵點和三箇不同的增長階段,利用差分和最小二乘法,給齣瞭Logistic模型的一種便于使用的參數估計方法.併通過實例,建立Logistic模型對我國城鎮居民傢庭平均每百戶綵色電視機擁有量的增長變化趨勢進行瞭分析和預測.
분석료Logistic함수적해석성질,득도료유선상삼개관건점화삼개불동적증장계단,이용차분화최소이승법,급출료Logistic모형적일충편우사용적삼수고계방법.병통과실례,건립Logistic모형대아국성진거민가정평균매백호채색전시궤옹유량적증장변화추세진행료분석화예측.
The analytic properties of logistic function was analyzed, and three key points and three different increasing stages of the curve were obtained. An estimating method of parameters of logistic model was obtained, which is convenience and suitable to be used . At last, a logistic model was built to analyze and forecast the increase trend of TV set per hundred urban residents 's capacity possessing of our country .
