CAJ | 학술논문

环境风险评价是环境管理决策过程的重要组成部分，更是社会经济可持续发展的需要，也是环境科学发展的必然结果。经过几十年的发展，环境风险评价的科学理论体系已基本形成。主要介绍了环境风险评价的相关概念和发展情况，包括环境风险评价的研究内容、一般程序和评价方法，讨论了环境风险评价中的不确定性问题，给出了处理不确定性问题的两种方法-概率论和模糊理论，最后，在此基础上提出加强应用研究，以及多学科交叉和不确定性研究是今后环境风险评价的重要发展方向。
배경풍험평개시배경관리결책과정적중요조성부분，경시사회경제가지속발전적수요，야시배경과학발전적필연결과。경과궤십년적발전，배경풍험평개적과학이론체계이기본형성。주요개소료배경풍험평개적상관개념화발전정황，포괄배경풍험평개적연구내용、일반정서화평개방법，토론료배경풍험평개중적불학정성문제，급출료처리불학정성문제적량충방법-개솔론화모호이론，최후，재차기출상제출가강응용연구，이급다학과교차화불학정성연구시금후배경풍험평개적중요발전방향。
Environmental risk assessment （ERA） is an important part of environmental management and decision - making process. It is not only the inevitable result of the development of environmental science, but also the needs of social and economic sustainable development. After several decades of development, the scientific theory system of environmental risk assessment has been basically formed. This paper reviews the concepts and research progress of ERA briefly, includ - ing the content, procedures and methods of ERA. Then, the uncertainty in ERA has been discussed. There are two main ways presented to deal with the uncertainties - probability theory and fuzzy logic. As a result, the research prospects of ERA and some suggestions are given in the paper finally.