CAJ | 학술논문

依据陕西省生态农业干旱相似区,将陕西省干旱预测预警划分为8个分区;利用中期或延伸期天气预报、土壤相对湿度观测值、地面植被等信息,分别建立了综合气象和综合农业干旱预测模型,开发了陕西省干旱预测预警系统平台,可逐日对全省97个气象站点未来的干旱演变进行滚动预测,在此基础上结合干旱预警条件分析及等级判识,进一步判断是否发布以及如何发布干旱预警信息.与实际出现的旱情相比,2007年的干旱预测准确率达88%～96%.
의거합서성생태농업간한상사구,장합서성간한예측예경화분위8개분구;이용중기혹연신기천기예보、토양상대습도관측치、지면식피등신식,분별건립료종합기상화종합농업간한예측모형,개발료합서성간한예측예경계통평태,가축일대전성97개기상참점미래적간한연변진행곤동예측,재차기출상결합간한예경조건분석급등급판식,진일보판단시부발포이급여하발포간한예경신식.여실제출현적한정상비,2007년적간한예측준학솔체88%～96%.
Based on the ecological and agricultural drought similar regions, 8 sub-areas for drought forecasting and early warning in Shaanxi province were divided. By using the information of medium term or extended weather forecast, soil relative humidity observations, ground vegetation, etc, integrated meteorological model and the integrated agricultural model for drought forecasting were set up and a drought forecasting and early warning system platform was developed. The daily drought evolution of the 97 meteorological stations in Shaanxi province could then be rolling forecasted. Whether and how to release drought early warning information could be determined based on these records, the analysis of drought early warning conditions and identified grades. The accuracy rate of drought prediction in 2007 was 88% to 96% as compared to the actual situation.