CAJ | 학술논문

广义翁氏模型是石油产量预测的基础模型之一.陈元千教授首次提出的求解广义翁氏模型的线性迭代试差法,提出一种新求解方法,以辽河油田为例,对比了两种方法的求解过程及计算结果,分析了两种方法的优缺点.结果表明,原线性迭代试差法在求解模型时,需要用计算机软件模拟参数6的取值,然后选择一个判断标准来寻找最优的6值,但在回归段的选择上比较直观,新方法通过二元回归可以直接求出参数b,但在回归段的选择没有原方法直观.两种方法并不存在根本性差异,各有优劣,在实践应用中可互为补充.
엄의옹씨모형시석유산량예측적기출모형지일.진원천교수수차제출적구해엄의옹씨모형적선성질대시차법,제출일충신구해방법,이료하유전위례,대비료량충방법적구해과정급계산결과,분석료량충방법적우결점.결과표명,원선성질대시차법재구해모형시,수요용계산궤연건모의삼수6적취치,연후선택일개판단표준래심조최우적6치,단재회귀단적선택상비교직관,신방법통과이원회귀가이직접구출삼수b,단재회귀단적선택몰유원방법직관.량충방법병불존재근본성차이,각유우렬,재실천응용중가호위보충.
To solve generalized Wens model is one of fundamental problems for petroleum production prediction.This paper traces back the origin of petroleum production prediction problem,reviews the initial linear iterative try and error method proposed firstly by Dr.Chen Yuan-qian,and presents a new method for solving this model.Taking Liaohe oilfield as an example,the solving process and results of two methods are compared,and the advantage and disadvantage of each method are analyzed.The case study shows that in the initial linear iterative try and error method,parameter b needs to be simulated with the software,selecting a judgment criteria to find the optimal value,and it is intuitive to select regression data;while in this new method,the optimal value of parameter b can be found directly by multiple regression,but it is less intuitive to select regression data.The two methods have individual advantage and disadvantage without any essential difference,which can complement each other in practice.