CAJ | 학술논문

将系统动力学理论应用于区域综合货运系统与经济发展的相互影响定量分析中,通过分析货运供需系统因果关系,研究货运需求、货运缺口、经济发展、运输投资等系统影响因素之间的反馈环路.在此基础上建立系统流图,构建货运系统与区域经济互动关系系统动力学模型.通过仿真试验,分析了运输投资比例、产业结构等与货运生成总量及货运缺口之间的定量关系.结果表明,运输基础设施投资比例的提高,能有效改善货运供给能力的不足,使得货运缺口减小,促进经济的增长;第1、2产业对于货运生成总量的贡献较大,第3产业对货运生成总量的贡献较小.
장계통동역학이론응용우구역종합화운계통여경제발전적상호영향정량분석중,통과분석화운공수계통인과관계,연구화운수구、화운결구、경제발전、운수투자등계통영향인소지간적반궤배로.재차기출상건립계통류도,구건화운계통여구역경제호동관계계통동역학모형.통과방진시험,분석료운수투자비례、산업결구등여화운생성총량급화운결구지간적정량관계.결과표명,운수기출설시투자비례적제고,능유효개선화운공급능력적불족,사득화운결구감소,촉진경제적증장;제1、2산업대우화운생성총량적공헌교대,제3산업대화운생성총량적공헌교소.
The interaction between regional freight transport system and regional economic development was quantitatively analysed by using system dynamics theory.By analysing the causal relationship of freight transport supply and demand system,the feedback loop of systematic influence factors including freight demand,freight gap,egonomic development and transport investment was discussed.The system flow diagram was given,and the system dynamics model for the relation between regional freight transport system and regional economic development was developed accordingly.Then the relation of transport investment ratio,industrial structure with volume of freight transport and freight gap Was analyzed through simulation experiment.The result indicates that(1)the enhancement of investment radio of transport infrastructure can effectively improve freight transport supply to decrease freight gap and boost the economic development;(2)primary-industry and secondary-industry contribute more volumes of freight transport,and tertiary-industry contributes less.