CAJ | 학술논문

简要介绍了1999年11月29日辽宁岫岩Ms5.4地震成功预报的震前主要预测依据及基本思路。通过对震前辽宁地区地震中短期危险性的分析，确定辽南地区是未来主震的危险地区。根据地震活动的区域特性及岫岩偏岭震群活动的规律，判定岫岩震群的前震性质。利用地震活动性参数计算结果和震前在震中及邻近地区出现前兆短临异常的统计分析，进一步论述了震前预测地震三要素的基本依据。
간요개소료1999년11월29일료녕수암Ms5.4지진성공예보적진전주요예측의거급기본사로。통과대진전료녕지구지진중단기위험성적분석，학정료남지구시미래주진적위험지구。근거지진활동적구역특성급수암편령진군활동적규률，판정수암진군적전진성질。이용지진활동성삼수계산결과화진전재진중급린근지구출현전조단림이상적통계분석，진일보논술료진전예측지진삼요소적기본의거。
In this paper, the basic idea and the main evidence for the successful prediction ofXiuyan earthquake with Ms 5.4 on Nov. 29, 1999 in Liaoning province are briefly introduced.It is determined that the southern Liaoning province is dangerous area of the coming earth-quake, based on the analysis of the seismic risk for the medium-and short-term of pre-earth-quake in southern Liaoning province. On the basis of the provincial characteristics of seismicityand the law of the swarm activity at Xiuyan, the foreshocks-characteristics of the Xiuyanswarm is determined. Making use of the numerical results of the seismicity parameters and thestatistical analysis of the short-term and imminent precursor phenomenon in epicenter and itsneighboring region, the basic foundation of prediction of three elements prior to the earthquakeis further discussed.