数学的实践与认识
數學的實踐與認識
수학적실천여인식
MATHEMATICS IN PRACTICE AND THEORY
2009年
21期
90-95
,共6页
交通事故%隶属函数%数据拟合%组合回归%模糊双峰正态分布%模糊正弦分布
交通事故%隸屬函數%數據擬閤%組閤迴歸%模糊雙峰正態分佈%模糊正絃分佈
교통사고%대속함수%수거의합%조합회귀%모호쌍봉정태분포%모호정현분포
traffic accident%membership function%data fitting%regression combination%fuzzy two-humped Normal distribution%fuzzy Sinusoidal distribution
借助于数学软件MATLAB,运用模糊数学方法.探讨中国交通事故发生及危害的变化规律.首先,作中国交通事故统汁数据的散点图,观察发现交通事故的变化同时具有线性增长总趋势和波动性特征,呈现出复杂的非线性组合特点;再对这些数据进行归一化处理,给出交通事故的模糊隶属函数;最后对交通数据进行分布拟合、组合回归处理,得到交通事故非线性模糊分布函数.结果表明,随着时间的变化,中国交通事故的死亡人数呈线性与正态叠加波动上升趋势,受伤人数呈线性与正弦叠加波动上升趋势,发生起数与损失折款都呈双峰正态分布波动趋势,2002年以来交通状况正在好转.得到的结果能客观地反映交通事故的现状分布和精确地刻划中国交通事故发生及危害变化规律,对于交通事故预测、综合治理具有重要的理论意义和应用价值,可供交通事故研究和有关部门制定交通安全管理决策作参考.
藉助于數學軟件MATLAB,運用模糊數學方法.探討中國交通事故髮生及危害的變化規律.首先,作中國交通事故統汁數據的散點圖,觀察髮現交通事故的變化同時具有線性增長總趨勢和波動性特徵,呈現齣複雜的非線性組閤特點;再對這些數據進行歸一化處理,給齣交通事故的模糊隸屬函數;最後對交通數據進行分佈擬閤、組閤迴歸處理,得到交通事故非線性模糊分佈函數.結果錶明,隨著時間的變化,中國交通事故的死亡人數呈線性與正態疊加波動上升趨勢,受傷人數呈線性與正絃疊加波動上升趨勢,髮生起數與損失摺款都呈雙峰正態分佈波動趨勢,2002年以來交通狀況正在好轉.得到的結果能客觀地反映交通事故的現狀分佈和精確地刻劃中國交通事故髮生及危害變化規律,對于交通事故預測、綜閤治理具有重要的理論意義和應用價值,可供交通事故研究和有關部門製定交通安全管理決策作參攷.
차조우수학연건MATLAB,운용모호수학방법.탐토중국교통사고발생급위해적변화규률.수선,작중국교통사고통즙수거적산점도,관찰발현교통사고적변화동시구유선성증장총추세화파동성특정,정현출복잡적비선성조합특점;재대저사수거진행귀일화처리,급출교통사고적모호대속함수;최후대교통수거진행분포의합、조합회귀처리,득도교통사고비선성모호분포함수.결과표명,수착시간적변화,중국교통사고적사망인수정선성여정태첩가파동상승추세,수상인수정선성여정현첩가파동상승추세,발생기수여손실절관도정쌍봉정태분포파동추세,2002년이래교통상황정재호전.득도적결과능객관지반영교통사고적현상분포화정학지각화중국교통사고발생급위해변화규률,대우교통사고예측、종합치리구유중요적이론의의화응용개치,가공교통사고연구화유관부문제정교통안전관리결책작삼고.
The rules of traffic accidents and their hazards in China are studied by virtue of MATLAB and the method of fuzzy mathematics. First, the general trend of linear increase and fluctuant character of the traffic accidents are found by observing the scatter graph of statistical data of traffic accidents in China, which represent a complex nonlinear combinatorial feature.Second, these data are processed by the method of normalization; fuzzy membership function of traffic accident is arrived at. Finally, a nonlinear fuzzy distribution function of traffic accidents is obtained by way of distribution fitting and combinational regression treatment of the data. The result indicates that with time changing, the death toll in China's traffic accidents shows the combined upward trend of a linear and Normal distribution fluctuation, the number of the injured shows the upward trend of linear and Sinusoidal fluctuations, accident occurrence and loss both show two-humped Normal distribution. The traffic situation takes a turn for better since 2002. The result can objectively reflect the status distribution and accurately depict the hazard change rule of traffic accidents, which has theoretical significance and application value for forecast and comprehensive control of traffic accidents, thus it can be used as a reference in the research of traffic accidents and decision-making for safety management of concerned departments.
