CAJ | 학술논문

目的描述1986-2010年林州市的人群食管癌死亡率时间变化趋势,探讨年龄、时期和出生队列效应对林州市食管癌死亡率变化的影响,并预测2016-2020年林州市的食管癌死亡水平.方法从河南省癌症及生命统计中心数据库中抽取1986-2010年林州市死于食管癌的全部记录,分性别5岁分年龄组,5年分时期组,并与相应的人口数据连接.计算中国人口年龄调整死亡率,运用内在估计(IE)模型进行年龄-时期-队列分析,并分别绘制死亡率的年龄、时期和出生队列效应曲线,根据模型的参数效应估计值预测2016-2020年林州市人群食管癌死亡人数.结果 1986-2010年间林州市有15 432人死于食管癌,年均粗死亡率为63.89/10万.1986-1990年男性年均年龄调整死亡率为109.66/10万,2006-2010年下降为60.59/10万;女性年均年龄调整死亡率则由74.72/10万下降到39.05/10万.IE模型分析显示,食管癌死亡风险的年龄效应显著,时期效应波动不大,而队列效应呈明显下降趋势.2016-2020年林州市30岁以上人群男女预计死于食管癌者分别为1501人和1083人,较2006-2010年将分别下降6.71％和11.08％.结论 1986-2010年间林州市人群食管癌死亡率呈下降趋势,这种趋势主要是出生队列效应作用的结果,预计未来10年内林州市人群食管癌的死亡水平将继续下降.
목적 묘술1986-2010년림주시적인군식관암사망솔시간변화추세,탐토년령、시기화출생대렬효응대림주시식관암사망솔변화적영향,병예측2016-2020년림주시적식관암사망수평.방법 종하남성암증급생명통계중심수거고중추취1986-2010년림주시사우식관암적전부기록,분성별5세분년령조,5년분시기조,병여상응적인구수거련접.계산중국인구년령조정사망솔,운용내재고계(IE)모형진행년령-시기-대렬분석,병분별회제사망솔적년령、시기화출생대렬효응곡선,근거모형적삼수효응고계치예측2016-2020년림주시인군식관암사망인수.결과 1986-2010년간림주시유15 432인사우식관암,년균조사망솔위63.89/10만.1986-1990년남성년균년령조정사망솔위109.66/10만,2006-2010년하강위60.59/10만;녀성년균년령조정사망솔칙유74.72/10만하강도39.05/10만.IE모형분석현시,식관암사망풍험적년령효응현저,시기효응파동불대,이대렬효응정명현하강추세.2016-2020년림주시30세이상인군남녀예계사우식관암자분별위1501인화1083인,교2006-2010년장분별하강6.71％화11.08％.결론 1986-2010년간림주시인군식관암사망솔정하강추세,저충추세주요시출생대렬효응작용적결과,예계미래10년내림주시인군식관암적사망수평장계속하강.
Objective To analyze the trends in mortality of esophageal cancer and explore the effects of age,period and cohort on esophageal caner mortality rate in Linzhou city in 1986-2010,and predict the mortality of esophageal cancer in 2016-2020.Methods All of the esophageal cancer-attributed deaths in 1986-2010 were drawn from the database in Center of Cancer and Vita Statistics in Henan Province.The numbers of the death cases and population were tabulated into 5-year age groups and 5-year period groups for each sex and linked each other.The age-adjusted mortality rates were calculated by direct standardization to the Chinese population structure in 1982.Intrinsic estimator model (IE model)was used to perform the age-period-cohort analysis and estimate the corresponding parameters.Age effect,period effect and cohort effect on esophageal cancer mortality rate was plotted separately.The mortality of esophageal cancer during 2016-2020 was predicted according to the parameters by that model.Results A total of 15432 cases died from esophageal cancer in Linzhou city in1986-2010.The overall crude mortality rate was 63.89 per 100,000.Among men,the age-adjusted mortality rate was 109.66 per 100,000 during 1986-1990 and decreased to 60.59 per 100,000 during 2006-2010.For women,the age-adjusted mortality rate decreased from 74.72 per 100,000 to 39.05 per 100,000 at the same two calendar periods.The IE model showed that age effect was remarkable,the period effect was stable and the cohort effect decreased greatly.The predicted mortality of over 30-years old population during 2016-2020 is 1501 for men and 1083 for women.Compared with 2006-2010 period the mortality will be decreased by 6.71％ and 11.08％,respectively.Conclusions The mortality rate of esophageal cancer in Linzhou city shows a decreasing trend during the period of 1986-2010.This trend is mainly attributed to the cohort effect.The predicted mortality in the future will decrease continually.