CAJ | 학술논문

影响城市电力负荷的不确定风险因素很多,各种风险因素之间相互影响,形成一个复杂的系统.研究风险系统的结构和相互关系,以及这些风险因素对城市电力负荷的影响,对于城市电网规划非常有意义.文中以影响城市电力负荷的风险因素为研究对象,运用解释结构模型(ISM)对影响城市电力负荷的风险因素进行了分析,并构建了该风险系统的阶层结构图及风险传递链.在此基础上,建立了基于ISM风险分析的城市电力负荷预测模型.通过北京市2001年-2008年全社会用电量算例检验,所提出的方法可以有效提高城市电力负荷预测水平,为城市电力负荷预测风险管理提供决策基础.
영향성시전력부하적불학정풍험인소흔다,각충풍험인소지간상호영향,형성일개복잡적계통.연구풍험계통적결구화상호관계,이급저사풍험인소대성시전력부하적영향,대우성시전망규화비상유의의.문중이영향성시전력부하적풍험인소위연구대상,운용해석결구모형(ISM)대영향성시전력부하적풍험인소진행료분석,병구건료해풍험계통적계층결구도급풍험전체련.재차기출상,건립료기우ISM풍험분석적성시전력부하예측모형.통과북경시2001년-2008년전사회용전량산례검험,소제출적방법가이유효제고성시전력부하예측수평,위성시전력부하예측풍험관리제공결책기출.
There are many uncertain risk factors that affect the urban power load and interact with one another,forming a complex risk system.It is of great significance for urban grid planning to study the structure of the risk system and the relationship between these risk factors,and clarify their influence on the urban power load.By taking the urban power load risk system as the research object,the urban power load risk factors are analyzed and the layered structure diagram and transport chain of risk factors are constructed with the interpretative structure modeling(ISM).An urban power load forecasting model based on ISM risk analysis is proposed.The results of the case study of Beijing during the period 200 1～2008 show that the method can effectively improve urban power load forecasting and provide a decision-making basis for urban load forecasting risk management.