CAJ | 학술논문

分析了安徽省2008年1-2月雪灾的发生特点,和历史上较大雪灾相比,极端最低气温明显高于历次雪灾年.利用实时雪情和灾情资料建立了安徽省单站和全省的农业经济损失定量评估模型.并进行了误差分析和试应用.评估结果表明:单站评估模型的平均相对误差在30%左右,全省评估模型为20%左右,全省评估模型的准确性较高.
분석료안휘성2008년1-2월설재적발생특점,화역사상교대설재상비,겁단최저기온명현고우력차설재년.이용실시설정화재정자료건립료안휘성단참화전성적농업경제손실정량평고모형.병진행료오차분석화시응용.평고결과표명:단참평고모형적평균상대오차재30%좌우,전성평고모형위20%좌우,전성평고모형적준학성교고.
The characteristics of snow disaster in Anhui Province during January--February of 2008 have been analyzed. The extreme maximum temperature during snow disaster in 2008 was obviously higher than other snow disasters in history. The separate and total models of quantitative evaluation of agricultural loss in Anhui Province have been established, using real-time data of snow condition and disaster situation. The model error has been analyzed and the trial application of the model has also been made. The average relative error of separate model was about 30%, while that of total model was about 20%. The total model was more accurate.