CAJ | 학술논문

当基坑水平位移数据呈现某种趋势时,常常需要将这种有趋势的时间序列分解为趋势项与随机项,建立指数平滑为趋势项的自回归模型,进行分析、预测.工程实例验证表明:该方法与单独指数平滑模型相比,预测值与实际位移值之间的误差更小;与单独的GM(1,1)模型相比,拟合线形更加稳定.
당기갱수평위이수거정현모충추세시,상상수요장저충유추세적시간서렬분해위추세항여수궤항,건립지수평활위추세항적자회귀모형,진행분석、예측.공정실례험증표명:해방법여단독지수평활모형상비,예측치여실제위이치지간적오차경소;여단독적GM(1,1)모형상비,의합선형경가은정.
When the excavation foundation ditch horizontally deforms,its dyanmical process of the horizontal displacement is frequently decomposed into two parts with stochastic noise.The deformation is analyzed and predicted by autoregressive model whose trend is exponential smoothing model.The engineering experiment shows that the method has less predication error than the single exponential smoothing model,and the fitted curve is more stable than that of GM(1,1) model.