CAJ | 학술논문

运用中尺度暴雨MRM模式，采用常规报文资料作为初始场，对2003年7月8-10日的一次江淮地区暴雨过程进行数值模拟。结果表明：该模式对降水场模拟结果同实况基本相似，模式对暴雨的位置、强度、中心都有较好的模拟，嬲评分较高；西南气流对水汽的输送作用及江淮地区上空水汽通量的高值区，为暴雨的形成与维持提供了重要的水汽条件，水汽辐合区与暴雨落区相对应；中低层辐合、高层辐散的散度垂直分布形势，对暴雨的发生提供了十分有利的动力条件；强降雨出现在低层正涡度中心和负散度中心附近。
운용중척도폭우MRM모식，채용상규보문자료작위초시장，대2003년7월8-10일적일차강회지구폭우과정진행수치모의。결과표명：해모식대강수장모의결과동실황기본상사，모식대폭우적위치、강도、중심도유교호적모의，뇨평분교고；서남기류대수기적수송작용급강회지구상공수기통량적고치구，위폭우적형성여유지제공료중요적수기조건，수기복합구여폭우락구상대응；중저층복합、고층복산적산도수직분포형세，대폭우적발생제공료십분유리적동력조건；강강우출현재저층정와도중심화부산도중심부근。
By use of the mesoscale rainstorm model, a Meiyu heavy rainfall event from 8 to 10 July 2003 is numerical simulated with the routine data. The results show that the simulated precipitation of the high resolution model is very similar with the observational rainfall. The model has a good predictive skill for the location, intensity and center of the Meiyu heavy rainfall, and TS score is higher. The water vapor transfer role of southwesterly flow and the high-value area of water vapor flux over Jianghuai region, is supplied important water vapor conditions for heavy rainfall formation and maintenance, moisture convergence zone is corresponding with the rainfall. The divergence vertical pattern, which the convergence at low level and divergence at upper level, is supplied favorable dynamic conditions for heavy rainfall devel- opment. Heavy rainfall occurred near the positive vortieity center and negative divergence center.