CAJ | 학술논문

利用常规天气观测资料、美国NCEP/NCAR 1°×1°网格点逐6h再分析资料,采用天气学原理和天气动力学诊断分析方法,对2008年12月2-6日寒潮天气过程进行分析和总结.结果表明:此次寒潮天气过程出现在欧洲脊强烈发展并缓慢东移、北半球中高纬环流形势由纬向型向经向型转换过程中.西脊前强偏北风带南移、横槽涡度西部大于东部、横槽前东南方的负变高和横槽后部的暖平流正变高等促使横槽转竖;南掉极涡与转竖低槽合并后,低槽明显向南加深,冷空气势力显著加强并开始向南爆发;自西脊西北部入侵小槽压迫高脊向东南方向移动并逐渐崩溃,脊前偏北气流逆转为西北气流,引导冷空气大举向南爆发,造成了此次寒潮天气过程.强盛的冷平流是造成气温骤降的主要原因.强风的形成除与冷平流侵入有关外,还与高空动量下传的增加密切相关.山东半岛降雨和强降雪的环流成因和物理量特征存在明显差异,降雨为冷暖空气交汇所致;强降雪则是冷平流、海陆分布差异和地形抬升共同影响的结果.T639、ECMWF和日本等3种数值模式均对这次亚欧中高纬大气环流的演变和调整均做出了较准确的预报,尤以ECMWF模式预报性能最好.
이용상규천기관측자료、미국NCEP/NCAR 1°×1°망격점축6h재분석자료,채용천기학원리화천기동역학진단분석방법,대2008년12월2-6일한조천기과정진행분석화총결.결과표명:차차한조천기과정출현재구주척강렬발전병완만동이、북반구중고위배류형세유위향형향경향형전환과정중.서척전강편북풍대남이、횡조와도서부대우동부、횡조전동남방적부변고화횡조후부적난평류정변고등촉사횡조전수;남도겁와여전수저조합병후,저조명현향남가심,랭공기세력현저가강병개시향남폭발;자서척서북부입침소조압박고척향동남방향이동병축점붕궤,척전편북기류역전위서북기류,인도랭공기대거향남폭발,조성료차차한조천기과정.강성적랭평류시조성기온취강적주요원인.강풍적형성제여랭평류침입유관외,환여고공동량하전적증가밀절상관.산동반도강우화강강설적배류성인화물리량특정존재명현차이,강우위랭난공기교회소치;강강설칙시랭평류、해륙분포차이화지형태승공동영향적결과.T639、ECMWF화일본등3충수치모식균대저차아구중고위대기배류적연변화조정균주출료교준학적예보,우이ECMWF모식예보성능최호.
Based on the conventional surface and upper data,NCEP 1°×1° reanalysis data of every 6-h,in terms of the synoptic principle and the dynamic diagnosis,the cold wave during 2-6 December 2008 has been analyzed.The results are as follows:The cold wave occurred when the European ridge developed intensely and moved eastwards,and the zonal circulation changed into the meridional one in the middle-high latitude in the Northern Hemisphere.The northerly wind in front of the ridge moved southwards.The vorticity of the transverse trough in the west was larger than that in the east.Both the negative variation of the height located in the southeast part in front of the trough and the positive variation of height behind the trough were favorable to the revising of the transverse trough. The polar vortex and the revising transverse trough get together causing the deepening of the trough. Meanwhile, the cold air strengthened and invaded to the south. The ridge impulsed by the trough moved southeastwards and broke down gradually.Afterwards, the northerly wind changed into the northwesterly wind, which led to this cold-wave process. The main reason for the rapid air temperature decrease was the intense cold advection.The formation of the strong wind was correlated with not only the cold advection but also the upper disseminated momentum. There were obvious differences of the circulation and characteristics of the physical quantities between the rainfall and the heavy snowfall in the Shandong Peninsula.The rainfall is induced by cold-warm air converging, the heavy snowfall is caused by cold flow and difference of sea-land distribution and orographic uplift. T639 model and ECMWF and Japan models, especially for ECMWF model, have good performances for the evolvement and adjustment of atmospheric circulation situation in the Asia middle and high latitude area.