CAJ | 학술논문

物流需求量是区域物流中心功能设计和规模确定的依据．本文参考了宏观经济预测和交通需求预测的有关方法,构造了多区间投入产出模型和空间价格均衡模型相结合的区域物流需求分析模型．利用多区间投入产出模型能较好地分析地区间和部门间的经济关联,利用空间价格均衡模型能将物流产生作为内生变量处理,从而使区域物流需求分析模型成为包含宏观经济分析层和物流分析层的两层次决策问题,分析过程能同时把握社会经济条件和物流供应条件两方面因素．最后根据模型的特点,给出其求解算法．
물류수구량시구역물류중심공능설계화규모학정적의거．본문삼고료굉관경제예측화교통수구예측적유관방법,구조료다구간투입산출모형화공간개격균형모형상결합적구역물류수구분석모형．이용다구간투입산출모형능교호지분석지구간화부문간적경제관련,이용공간개격균형모형능장물유산생작위내생변량처리,종이사구역물류수구분석모형성위포함굉관경제분석층화물류분석층적량층차결책문제,분석과정능동시파악사회경제조건화물류공응조건량방면인소．최후근거모형적특점,급출기구해산법．
Logistics demand volume is the base to design regional logistics centers and to decide their sizes. Consulting to the methods of macro-economic forecast and traffic demand forecast, a regional logistics demand analysis model is found combining multiple zones input-output model with spatial price equilibrium model. The economy relations among regions or departments can be analyzed by multiple zones input-output model, and logistics generation can be made as inside-born variable by spatial price equilibrium model. So regional logistics demand analysis model is regarded as a double-layer decision-making model with macro-economic analysis layer and logistics analysis layer, and as a result the full process of analysis can hold two elements of social economy condition and logistics serve condition. Finally, based on the characteristics of the model, its solution is put forward.