CAJ | 학술논문

目的根据1995年以来吉林省艾滋病疫情情况,对2009年及未来几年该省艾滋病疫情的流行趋势进行估计和预测,为艾滋病防治工作提供依据.方法以吉林省哨点监测、病例报告、专题调查及文献报道等数据为基础,利用疫情估计与预测软件包(EPP)和工作簿方法,对吉林省艾滋病疫情进行估计和预测.结果截止2009年底,估计吉林省现有HIV感染者及患者5438人,全人群感染率为0.02%;其中经异性传播2208人,占40.6%,经同性传播2012人,占37.0%,经血液传播924人,占17.0%,经吸毒传播162人,占3.0%,垂直传播22人,占0.4%.从2000年开始,吉林省艾滋病疫情以较快的速度上升,预计到2012年左右上升速度开始趋缓.结论 2009年吉林省艾滋病疫情仍然处于低流行水平,性传播为主要传播途径,未来几年疫情将呈现上升趋势.
목적 근거1995년이래길림성애자병역정정황,대2009년급미래궤년해성애자병역정적류행추세진행고계화예측,위애자병방치공작제공의거.방법 이길림성초점감측、병례보고、전제조사급문헌보도등수거위기출,이용역정고계여예측연건포(EPP)화공작부방법,대길림성애자병역정진행고계화예측.결과 절지2009년저,고계길림성현유HIV감염자급환자5438인,전인군감염솔위0.02%;기중경이성전파2208인,점40.6%,경동성전파2012인,점37.0%,경혈액전파924인,점17.0%,경흡독전파162인,점3.0%,수직전파22인,점0.4%.종2000년개시,길림성애자병역정이교쾌적속도상승,예계도2012년좌우상승속도개시추완.결론 2009년길림성애자병역정잉연처우저류행수평,성전파위주요전파도경,미래궤년역정장정현상승추세.
Objective To estimate HIV high-risk population sizes in 2009 and predict HIV epidemic trend in future according to the data from 1995 in Jilin province, and to provide the base for HIV prevention and control.Methods According to data of sentinel surveillance, case reporting, epidemiology survey and scientific lectures, workbook method and Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) model were used to estimate the HIV epidemic in Jilin province. Results By the end of 2009, it was estimated that 5438 people were infected in Jilin province. The total prevalence of HIV infection rate was 0.02% according to the estimation. Among the 5438 cases, 2208 (40.6%) cases were infected through heterosexual contact, 2012(37.0%) through homosexual contact, 924(17.0%) through blood transmission, 162(3.0% ) through drug injection and 22(0.4% ) through verticle transmission. HIV high-risk population increased fast from 2000, and the increasing current would slow down from 2012. Conclusions The HIV epidemic in Jilin province is still low in 2009 and the sexual transmission is the main routine, the epidemic trend will increase in next few years.