CAJ | 학술논문

采用数据模拟方法,在一段服从Poisson分布的数据序列中插入11个不同暴发规模、不同持续时间的暴发事件,研究暴发规模和持续时间对CUSUM(Cumulative Sum)预警模型效能的影响.结果发现,在现有模拟条件下,灵敏度为9.1％～100.0％,特异度≥98.6％；灵敏度与暴发规模有明显的关系,暴发强度越大,灵敏度越高,而暴发持续时间并不影响灵敏度；灵敏度达到100.0％,暴发规模需≥2.6；暴发规模越大,滞后时间越短；当暴发规模≥1.8时,滞后时间控制在＜1d.可见CUSUM预警模型的预警效能受暴发规模的影响,与暴发持续时间关系不明显.该模型对规模≥2.4的暴发具有较好的探测能力.
채용수거모의방법,재일단복종Poisson분포적수거서렬중삽입11개불동폭발규모、불동지속시간적폭발사건,연구폭발규모화지속시간대CUSUM(Cumulative Sum)예경모형효능적영향.결과발현,재현유모의조건하,령민도위9.1％～100.0％,특이도≥98.6％；령민도여폭발규모유명현적관계,폭발강도월대,령민도월고,이폭발지속시간병불영향령민도；령민도체도100.0％,폭발규모수≥2.6；폭발규모월대,체후시간월단；당폭발규모≥1.8시,체후시간공제재＜1d.가견CUSUM예경모형적예경효능수폭발규모적영향,여폭발지속시간관계불명현.해모형대규모≥2.4적폭발구유교호적탐측능력.
To explore the effect of magnitude and duration on the performance of Cumulative Sum (CUSUM),with simulation method used on the subject after the insertion of 11 outbreak events into baseline data with Poisson distribution.Sensitivity fluctuated from 9.1％ to 100.0％ with specificities higher than 98.6％.Sensitivity was significantly correlated with magnitude,and increased along with the increase of magnitude.However,no significant correlation was observed between sensitivity and duration.A magnitude which was at least 2.6 times higher than that of the mean daily baseline could result in the sensitivity of 100.0％.Time-lag would be improved along with the increase of magnitude.Time between onset and detection of an outbreak was no longer than one day when magnitude was more than 1.8 of the mean daily baseline.In summary,the performance of CUSUM was influenced by magnitude,but not by duration.CUSUM had the advantage of good time-lag and high sensitivity when the outbreak magnitude was more than 2.4 time over the baseline data.