CAJ | 학술논문

根据珠江流域1961-2007年气温、降水量观测资料和ECHAM5/MPI-OM模式2011-2060年预估结果,分析了流域过去47 a的气温和降水量变化,并预估未来50 a变化趋势.结果表明,在全球变暖的背景下,过去47 a温度呈上升趋势,约升高1.8℃.冬季增温最明显,夏季最弱.未来50 a流域温度仍呈上升趋势,A1B情景下升幅约1.9℃,并且年际变化增强.A2和B1两种排放情景下秋季升温最显著,冬季最弱,A1B排放情景与此相反.过去47 a秋季降水量呈减少趋势;春、夏、冬季和年降水量均呈增加趋势.未来50 a降水总体呈增加趋势,A1B排放情景降水增加最多,约为230 mm.A2、A1B和B1情景下降水季节分配未发生显著变化.年降水和冬季降水的年际变率增强,秋季减弱.
근거주강류역1961-2007년기온、강수량관측자료화ECHAM5/MPI-OM모식2011-2060년예고결과,분석료류역과거47 a적기온화강수량변화,병예고미래50 a변화추세.결과표명,재전구변난적배경하,과거47 a온도정상승추세,약승고1.8℃.동계증온최명현,하계최약.미래50 a류역온도잉정상승추세,A1B정경하승폭약1.9℃,병차년제변화증강.A2화B1량충배방정경하추계승온최현저,동계최약,A1B배방정경여차상반.과거47 a추계강수량정감소추세;춘、하、동계화년강수량균정증가추세.미래50 a강수총체정증가추세,A1B배방정경강수증가최다,약위230 mm.A2、A1B화B1정경하강수계절분배미발생현저변화.년강수화동계강수적년제변솔증강,추계감약.
Based on the temperature and precipitation observation data during 1961-2007 and projection during 2011-2060 by the ECHAM5/MPI-OM model, changing tendencies of temperature and precipitation in the Pearl River basin were analyzed. The results show that the annual average air temperature increased by 1.8 ℃ during the past 47 years, with a maximum increase in winter and a minimum increase in summer. Annual temperature would rise by 1.9 ℃ under the SRES-A1B scenario in the next 50 years (2011-2060); at the same time, inter-annual variability would enhance. Seasonal temperature would rise most significantly in autumn and most weakly in winter under the SRES-A2 and SRES-B1 scenarios; however, under the SRES-AIB scenario, the opposite is true. In the past 47 years, except that autumn precipitation decreased, spring, summer, winter and annual precipitation increased. Precipitation would overally increase about 230 mm in 2011-2060 by the ECHAM5/MPI-OM model under the SRES-AIB scenario. However, the seasonal percentages of annual rainfall would not change obviously. On the other hand, the inter-annual variability of annual and winter precipitation would enhance, but that of autumn precipitation would weaken.