CAJ | 학술논문

围绕苹果政策性农业保险对气象服务的需求,统计分析了陕西果区苹果花期物候和最低气温资料,确定了主要果区苹果花期冻害风险时段:延安和渭北西部果区为4月10-30日,关中和渭北东部果区为4月1-20日.结合有关文献和调查资料,依据低温强度,提出陕西苹果花期低温冻害农业保险的三个等级即低风险等级(T_D≤0℃),中风险等级(T_D≤-2℃),高风险等级(T_D≤-4℃)和不同等级的风险指数空间分布特点:各级风险指数均以延安果区为最高,渭北西部果区次之,渭北东部和关中果区风险指数明显偏低.结合种植环境的复杂性和灾害等级的不确定性,提出了农业保险参保指数指标为:10%＜参保风险指数＜80%.结合参保风险指数指标及首先关注高风险等级原则,对主要果区参保等级进行了分区评估:延安果区参保等级为高风险等级和中等风险等级,渭北西部果区参保等级以中等风险等级为主,渭北东部和关中果区参保等级以低风险等级为主.
위요평과정책성농업보험대기상복무적수구,통계분석료협서과구평과화기물후화최저기온자료,학정료주요과구평과화기동해풍험시단:연안화위북서부과구위4월10-30일,관중화위북동부과구위4월1-20일.결합유관문헌화조사자료,의거저온강도,제출협서평과화기저온동해농업보험적삼개등급즉저풍험등급(T_D≤0℃),중풍험등급(T_D≤-2℃),고풍험등급(T_D≤-4℃)화불동등급적풍험지수공간분포특점:각급풍험지수균이연안과구위최고,위북서부과구차지,위북동부화관중과구풍험지수명현편저.결합충식배경적복잡성화재해등급적불학정성,제출료농업보험삼보지수지표위:10%＜삼보풍험지수＜80%.결합삼보풍험지수지표급수선관주고풍험등급원칙,대주요과구삼보등급진행료분구평고:연안과구삼보등급위고풍험등급화중등풍험등급,위북서부과구삼보등급이중등풍험등급위주,위북동부화관중과구삼보등급이저풍험등급위주.
The apple' florescent phenophase and minimum temperature in Shaanxi fruit zone was analyzed statistically, to meet the demands for meteorological service for apple' policy agricultural insurance. Risk period of apple' florescence freezing injury was identified: it was from 10~(th) April to 30~(th) April in Yan'an and the western Weibei, and it lasted from 1~(st) April to 20~(th) April in Guanzhong and the eastern Weibei. Based on the relevant literature and investigation data as well as the low temperature strength records, Shaanxi apple' florescence freezing injury were classified into three levels for agricultural insurance: low risk grade(T_D≤0℃), middle risk grade(T_D≤-2℃), high risk grade(T_D≤-4℃) . And the spatial distribution of risk indexes for each grade was identified: the risk indexes in Yan'an fruit zone was highest, followed by the western Weibei fruit zone. The risk index was low in the eastern Weibei and Guanzhong fruit zone. In view of the complexity of planting environment and the uncertainty of disaster grade, 10% ~80% norm of the agricultural insurance insured risk indexes was put forward. According to the norm of the insured risk indexes and giving prior concern to high risk grade, the insured risk grades in main fruit zone were evaluated. The results showed that: risk grade was high or medium in Yan'an fruit zone, generally medium in the western Weibei fruit zone, and low in the eastern Weibei fruit zone and Guanzhong fruit zone.