CAJ | 학술논문

基于我国1991-2005年逐小时的降水观测资料,利用概率分布、统计检验与极值分布等方法,分析研究了我国中东部地区逐时降水强度的时空分布特征及一小时最大雨强的50年、100年重现期估算等问题.结果表明:对于4 mmh~(-1)以上的较强雨强而言,出现频数最多的地区主要在我国南部沿海地区;长江以南大部地区一小时雨强的最大值为60～80 mmh~(-1),沿海地区一小时雨强的最大值可以达到80～90 mmh~(-1);雨强出现频数的日变化在各地区是很不相同的,西南和华南是雨强日变化最明显的地区,4 mmh~(-1)以上量级的检验结果几乎全部都超过0.01的信度要求;一小时最大雨强50、100年重现期估算值的空间分布形态具有一致性,高值区主要在东南沿海一带,50年、100年一遇的一小时雨强达80～120 mmh~(-1)、100～150 mmh~(-1).
기우아국1991-2005년축소시적강수관측자료,이용개솔분포、통계검험여겁치분포등방법,분석연구료아국중동부지구축시강수강도적시공분포특정급일소시최대우강적50년、100년중현기고산등문제.결과표명:대우4 mmh~(-1)이상적교강우강이언,출현빈수최다적지구주요재아국남부연해지구;장강이남대부지구일소시우강적최대치위60～80 mmh~(-1),연해지구일소시우강적최대치가이체도80～90 mmh~(-1);우강출현빈수적일변화재각지구시흔불상동적,서남화화남시우강일변화최명현적지구,4 mmh~(-1)이상량급적검험결과궤호전부도초과0.01적신도요구;일소시최대우강50、100년중현기고산치적공간분포형태구유일치성,고치구주요재동남연해일대,50년、100년일우적일소시우강체80～120 mmh~(-1)、100～150 mmh~(-1).
Based on the observed hourly precipitation data over China from 1991 to 2005,the temporal and spatial distributions of hourly rain intensity and the recurrence periods for 50 or 100 years are analyzed by using probability distribution,statistical test and extreme value analysis.The results show that for the purposes of the rain intensity more than 4 mmh~(-1),the maximum values are mainly distributed in the south coastal areas.The maximum value of hourly rain intensity is 60-80 mmh~(-1) in most parts south of the Yangtze River,and 80-90 mmh~(-1) in the coastal areas.The diurnal variation of the rainfall intensity frequency occurred in regions are quite different.Southwest and South China are the regions featured by distinct diurnal variation of rainfall intensity.All the test results of rain intensity more than 4 mmh~(-1) reach 0.01 reliability.As for the estimated values of 50- and 100- year recurrence periods of one-hour maximum rainfall intensity,it seems that spatial distribution of their patterns are consistent.The maximum value areas are mainly distributed in coastal southeast China,where the maximum values of hourly rain intensity occurring once in a century and once in a half century are up to 100-150 mmh~(-1) and 80-120 mmh~(-1),respectively.