CAJ | 학술논문

基于地震灾害风险形成机理,在建立人口震害脆弱性曲线与确定地震发生参数的基础上,本文利用评估模型对我国Ⅴ-Ⅺ地震烈度下各县域单元的人口死亡风险进行评估并分析其空间分布格局.主要研究内容有:(1)首次采用基于过去-现在-未来的多方面地震孕灾环境资料来处理地震发生的可能性.具体综合历史地震综合烈度、地震活动断裂带分布、地震动峰值加速度三方面来确定全国2355个县域单元的地震发生参数;(2)利用1990-2009年我国历史地震灾情数据,对地震烈度与人员死亡率之间进行线性拟合,建立适合我国地震灾害风险评估的震害人口死亡脆弱性曲线;(3)利用震害风险评估模型对我国各县域单元的人口死亡风险进行定量评估,并分析风险空间分布格局,彻底摸清Ⅴ-Ⅺ地震烈度下我国各县域单元的地震灾害人口死亡风险.研究表明:在不同地震烈度下,我国广大的东、中部地区面临更高的风险,而西部的人口死亡风险相对较低.高风险区域呈零星状分布于山东与江苏大部、安徽北部、黑龙江与吉林东部等人口分布较密集且孕灾环境发育完备的区域.而无风险区域在全国范围内呈斑块状散布,分布格局基本保持不变.
기우지진재해풍험형성궤리,재건립인구진해취약성곡선여학정지진발생삼수적기출상,본문이용평고모형대아국Ⅴ-Ⅺ지진열도하각현역단원적인구사망풍험진행평고병분석기공간분포격국.주요연구내용유:(1)수차채용기우과거-현재-미래적다방면지진잉재배경자료래처리지진발생적가능성.구체종합역사지진종합열도、지진활동단렬대분포、지진동봉치가속도삼방면래학정전국2355개현역단원적지진발생삼수;(2)이용1990-2009년아국역사지진재정수거,대지진열도여인원사망솔지간진행선성의합,건립괄합아국지진재해풍험평고적진해인구사망취약성곡선;(3)이용진해풍험평고모형대아국각현역단원적인구사망풍험진행정량평고,병분석풍험공간분포격국,철저모청Ⅴ-Ⅺ지진열도하아국각현역단원적지진재해인구사망풍험.연구표명:재불동지진열도하,아국엄대적동、중부지구면림경고적풍험,이서부적인구사망풍험상대교저.고풍험구역정령성상분포우산동여강소대부、안휘북부、흑룡강여길림동부등인구분포교밀집차잉재배경발육완비적구역.이무풍험구역재전국범위내정반괴상산포,분포격국기본보지불변.
Based on the forming mechanism of seismic hazard risk,we established a seismic vulnerability curve on population and determined earthquake occurrence parameters.We then assessed the risk of seismic hazard mortality at the county level across China using the assessment model,and analyzed spatial patterns.We adopted past,present,and future disaster-breeding materials to assess the probability of earthquakes.In order to determine the earthquake parameters of 2355 counties accurately,we integrated history seismic intensities,seismic activity fault belts distributions and seismic peak ground acceleration.Based on data of seismic disasters from 1990 to 2009 in China,linear fitting between seismic intensities and mortalities was performed.And a vulnerability curve of seismic mortality,which was appropriate for seismic risk assessment,was established.Seismic mortality risks were assessed quantitatively at the county level using the model and the spatial patterns were analyzed.Seismic mortality risks of 2355 counties with intensities from Ⅴ to Ⅺ were analyzed thoroughly.This study indicates that under different seismic intensities,China's eastern and central regions are generally confronted with higher risk than western regions.High-risk areas are scattered in Shandong and Jiangsu,northern Anhui and eastern Heilongjiang and Jilin,where populations are dense and the environment is conducive to disasters.Riskfree areas displayed patchy distributions nationwide,and patterns were mostly unchanged.