江西植保
江西植保
강서식보
JIANGXI PLANT PROTECTION
2011年
3期
111-114
,共4页
二化螟%发生面积%预测%时间序列%南昌
二化螟%髮生麵積%預測%時間序列%南昌
이화명%발생면적%예측%시간서렬%남창
Chilo suppressalis%occurrence area%forecast%time series%Nanchang
根据江西省南昌县1980-2009年二化螟发生的历史资料,应用马尔科夫链方法和周期图分析预测法对该县未来2年二化螟的发生程度进行预测,预测2010年二化螟的发生程度为2级,中等偏轻发生,发生面积2.98万hm2~3.54万hm2,2010年实际发生2级,与预测值吻合。预测2011年为3级,中等发生,发生面积为3.55万hm2~4.10万hm2。
根據江西省南昌縣1980-2009年二化螟髮生的歷史資料,應用馬爾科伕鏈方法和週期圖分析預測法對該縣未來2年二化螟的髮生程度進行預測,預測2010年二化螟的髮生程度為2級,中等偏輕髮生,髮生麵積2.98萬hm2~3.54萬hm2,2010年實際髮生2級,與預測值吻閤。預測2011年為3級,中等髮生,髮生麵積為3.55萬hm2~4.10萬hm2。
근거강서성남창현1980-2009년이화명발생적역사자료,응용마이과부련방법화주기도분석예측법대해현미래2년이화명적발생정도진행예측,예측2010년이화명적발생정도위2급,중등편경발생,발생면적2.98만hm2~3.54만hm2,2010년실제발생2급,여예측치문합。예측2011년위3급,중등발생,발생면적위3.55만hm2~4.10만hm2。
Based on the database of Chilo suppressalis occurrence in Nanchang County of Jiangxi Province from 1980 to 2009,Markov chains transition matrix and period extrapolation were applied to predict the occurrence area of Chilo supperssalis in the County.The results showed that the occurrence degree for the insect would be grade two（occurring moderately to slightly） in 2010,namely occurring area will be between 2.98 hm2 and 3.54 hm2.Actually,the occurrence degree did be grade two in this county,which was the same as the prediction.The moth＇s occurrence degrees would be grade 3（occurring moderately） in 2011,i.e.,occurring area will be between 3.55 hm2 and 4.10 hm2.
