CAJ | 학술논문

该文统计了安顺市1986—2009年的暴雨站点资料及其对应的灾害资料，通过对历史气象资料和灾情数据库的综合分析，建立了暴雨灾情数据库。采用灰色关联度方法建立了暴雨灾害的评估方法，建立了划分标准，将暴雨灾害灾情划分为5个等级，经与实际灾情比较表明划分结果合理可用。研究了暴雨引发的灾害与气象因子的关系，建立了基于数值预报释用的暴雨预评估模型，在以上研究基础上建立了安顾暴雨灾害评估和预评估系统，已投入业务使用。
해문통계료안순시1986—2009년적폭우참점자료급기대응적재해자료，통과대역사기상자료화재정수거고적종합분석，건립료폭우재정수거고。채용회색관련도방법건립료폭우재해적평고방법，건립료화분표준，장폭우재해재정화분위5개등급，경여실제재정비교표명화분결과합리가용。연구료폭우인발적재해여기상인자적관계，건립료기우수치예보석용적폭우예평고모형，재이상연구기출상건립료안고폭우재해평고화예평고계통，이투입업무사용。
Based on historical weather data and comprehensive disaster data,, storm disaster in Anshun City from 1986 to 2009 was studied, established a rainstorm disaster database, using gray correlation degree method , we established standards for the storm disaster , divided the disaster into five grades o The results showed that the classification results was reasonably and available. We also studied the relationship between meteorological factors and Disaster , numerical prediction results was used to establish a pre - assessment equation~ Based on the above findings ,we established the Anshun storm disaster assessment and pre - assessment system which has been put into operational use.