CAJ | 학술논문

利用1951—2008年中国东北地区气温资料和NCEP高度场再分析资料,通过线性趋势分析和M-K检验方法,对东北地区冬季气温变化进行研究。结果表明：东北地区冬季变暖的时间是从20世纪80年代中期开始,突变年为1986年;冬季气温最暖年代出现在21世纪初;东北三省冬季累年气温变化趋势倾向基本是纬度越高气温趋势倾向值越大,特别是在1999—2008年黑龙江省冬季气温趋势倾向增温最显著。而在年气温变化趋势中,东北三省平均趋势倾向值没有冬季趋势倾向值大,其中吉林省气温趋势值最大。冷、暖冬年500 hPa高度距平场分布为冷冬负距平中心位于中国东北地区中部;暖冬年正距平中心位于贝加尔湖到中国东北地区中北部。低空冷冬年,东北地区受西北风、西风和东北风控制,冷空气势力强;暖冬年,东北地区仅受西北风影响,冷空气势力弱。
이용1951—2008년중국동북지구기온자료화NCEP고도장재분석자료,통과선성추세분석화M-K검험방법,대동북지구동계기온변화진행연구。결과표명：동북지구동계변난적시간시종20세기80년대중기개시,돌변년위1986년;동계기온최난년대출현재21세기초;동북삼성동계루년기온변화추세경향기본시위도월고기온추세경향치월대,특별시재1999—2008년흑룡강성동계기온추세경향증온최현저。이재년기온변화추세중,동북삼성평균추세경향치몰유동계추세경향치대,기중길림성기온추세치최대。랭、난동년500 hPa고도거평장분포위냉동부거평중심위우중국동북지구중부;난동년정거평중심위우패가이호도중국동북지구중북부。저공냉동년,동북지구수서북풍、서풍화동북풍공제,랭공기세력강;난동년,동북지구부수서북풍영향,랭공기세력약。
Based on the air temperature data and the NCEP reanalysis data of height field from 1951 to 2008,the variations of winter air temperature in the Northeast China were analyzed in terms of methods of a linear trend analysis and a Mann-Kendall test.The results indicate that the warming in winter in the Northeast China begins since the middle stage of 1980s,and the abrupt change of winter air temperature occurs in 1986.The warmest decade in winter appears in the early stage of 21 century.For winter air temperature in the Northeast China,the higher the latitude is,the larger the tendency value of winter air temperature is.The warming tendency in Heilongjiang province is the most obvious from 1999 to 2008.For annual air temperature,the tendency value of winter air temperature is larger than that of the average of the Northeast China,and the largest one is in Jilin province.The distributions of height anomaly field in 500 hPa in cold and warm winter years show that the negative and positive anomaly centers in cold and warm winter years are located in the middle of the Northeast China and from Baikal Lake to the mid-north of the Northeast China,respectively.The low level are controlled by the northwestern wind,west wind and northeastern wind in cold winter year in the Northeast China and cold air is strong,while it is only influenced by the northwestern wind in warm winter year and cold air is weak.