CAJ | 학술논문

以AREM模式和LAPS系统为核心,建立了3 h快速更新同化预报系统（AREM-RUC）,并对武汉暴雨研究所业务运行的三套模式系统（AREM-YW、AREM-SY和AREM-RUC）在2009年6—12月的实时降水预报结果进行了对比检验,结果表明：（1）2009年6月1日至12月14日00时起报的0～24 h降水预报TS评分AREM-RUC在全国、长江中下游、华南、华北、东北、西南地区东部的小、中、大、暴、大暴雨级别的降水评分均高于AREM-YW和AREM-SY。（2）从预报偏差来看,AREM-RUC对暴雨、大暴雨的预报范围比实况偏大;而AREM-YW和AREM-SY均比实况范围偏小。（3）对2009年6月17日湖北当阳局地大暴雨过程的实时预报AREM-RUC明显优于AREM-SY和AREM-YW,3 h不断更新的预报对改进降水落区和落时起到了积极作用。（4）对2009年6月29日长江中下游梅雨锋特大暴雨的实时预报,AREM-YW和AREM-SY预报强度明显偏弱,而AREM-RUC预报结果明显优于其他两个模式系统,预报的特大暴雨中心位置、强度均与实况有较好的对应。该过程实时预报结果也表明,在恰当的初值条件下,AREM模式有能力预报出与实况接近的特大暴雨过程。进一步分析表明,AREM-SY中采用的GRAPES_3DVAR同化方案分析的西太平洋副热带高压明显偏强偏西、水汽偏弱、中低层切变偏弱是导致AREM-SY降水预报偏弱、雨带偏北的原因。（5）对2009年6月29日特大暴雨过程每6 h降水结果的检验表明,3 h不断更新的预报对6 h累积降水量的预报有改善。
이AREM모식화LAPS계통위핵심,건립료3 h쾌속경신동화예보계통（AREM-RUC）,병대무한폭우연구소업무운행적삼투모식계통（AREM-YW、AREM-SY화AREM-RUC）재2009년6—12월적실시강수예보결과진행료대비검험,결과표명：（1）2009년6월1일지12월14일00시기보적0～24 h강수예보TS평분AREM-RUC재전국、장강중하유、화남、화북、동북、서남지구동부적소、중、대、폭、대폭우급별적강수평분균고우AREM-YW화AREM-SY。（2）종예보편차래간,AREM-RUC대폭우、대폭우적예보범위비실황편대;이AREM-YW화AREM-SY균비실황범위편소。（3）대2009년6월17일호북당양국지대폭우과정적실시예보AREM-RUC명현우우AREM-SY화AREM-YW,3 h불단경신적예보대개진강수락구화락시기도료적겁작용。（4）대2009년6월29일장강중하유매우봉특대폭우적실시예보,AREM-YW화AREM-SY예보강도명현편약,이AREM-RUC예보결과명현우우기타량개모식계통,예보적특대폭우중심위치、강도균여실황유교호적대응。해과정실시예보결과야표명,재흡당적초치조건하,AREM모식유능력예보출여실황접근적특대폭우과정。진일보분석표명,AREM-SY중채용적GRAPES_3DVAR동화방안분석적서태평양부열대고압명현편강편서、수기편약、중저층절변편약시도치AREM-SY강수예보편약、우대편북적원인。（5）대2009년6월29일특대폭우과정매6 h강수결과적검험표명,3 h불단경신적예보대6 h루적강수량적예보유개선。
The 3 h rapid update assimilation and prediction system called AREM-RUC is built up based on AREM model and LAPS system,and the real-time forecasting performance,during the period from June to December 2009,was compared among AREM-YW,AREM-SY and AREM-RUC which are the three model systems running in operation at Institute of Heavy Rain of CMA.The results show that（1） the TS score of light rain,moderate rain,heavy rain and torrential rain forecasted by AREM-RUC leading 24h is higher than that of AREM-YW and AREM-SY in the area of China,the middle-lower valley of Yangtze River,south China,north China,northeast China,and eastern part of southwest China.（2） As to prediction deviation,the area of heavy rain forecasted by AREM-RUC is larger than the observation,but those by AREM-YW and AREM-SY are smaller than the observations.（3） The real-time forecast of AREM-RUC for a local heavy rain process happened in Dangyang in Hubei province on June 17,2009 is much better than those of AREM-SY and AREM-YW,and the prediction about rainfall area and time is improved greatly with 3h updated forecasts.（4） The AREM-RUC gives a much better forecast for an extremely heavy rain event happened on June 29,2009 with the location and intensity of the heavy rain center close to the observation,while the heavy rain intensity forecasts by AREM-YW and AREM-SY are much weaker than the observation.The further study shows that the GRAPES-3DVAR assimilation scheme adopted in AREM-SY gives an analysis of a westward and stronger Western Pacific Subtropical High,a weaker water vapor and a weaker low-level shear,which is the main reason why the rain belt forecasted by AREM-SY is weaker and to the north.（5） The verification of 6h rainfall forecast for the extremely heavy rain event on June 29,2009 suggests that the 3h updated forecast makes an improvement in the prediction of 6h accumulated precipitation.