世界科技研究与发展
世界科技研究與髮展
세계과기연구여발전
WORLD SCI-TECH R & D
2010年
1期
84-87
,共4页
董庆雄%曾嘉俊%张元标%张文川
董慶雄%曾嘉俊%張元標%張文川
동경웅%증가준%장원표%장문천
负荷预测%粗糙集理论%GM(1,N)%GM(1,1)
負荷預測%粗糙集理論%GM(1,N)%GM(1,1)
부하예측%조조집이론%GM(1,N)%GM(1,1)
load forecasting%rough set theory%GM(1,N)%GM(1,1)
针对电力系统多因素负荷预测问题的复杂性,结合粗糙集理论与GM(1,N)模型各自的优势,提出一种基于粗糙集理论的GM(1,N)预测模型.采取粗糙集理论对影响负荷预测因素进行简约,利用GM(1,N)建立简约后的因素变量和负荷之间的关系建立模型,并与GM(1,1)预测模型进行了比较,结果反映基于粗糙集理论的GM(1,N)预测模型的优越性,精准度达到94.055%.
針對電力繫統多因素負荷預測問題的複雜性,結閤粗糙集理論與GM(1,N)模型各自的優勢,提齣一種基于粗糙集理論的GM(1,N)預測模型.採取粗糙集理論對影響負荷預測因素進行簡約,利用GM(1,N)建立簡約後的因素變量和負荷之間的關繫建立模型,併與GM(1,1)預測模型進行瞭比較,結果反映基于粗糙集理論的GM(1,N)預測模型的優越性,精準度達到94.055%.
침대전력계통다인소부하예측문제적복잡성,결합조조집이론여GM(1,N)모형각자적우세,제출일충기우조조집이론적GM(1,N)예측모형.채취조조집이론대영향부하예측인소진행간약,이용GM(1,N)건립간약후적인소변량화부하지간적관계건립모형,병여GM(1,1)예측모형진행료비교,결과반영기우조조집이론적GM(1,N)예측모형적우월성,정준도체도94.055%.
Through combined with rough set theory and GM(1,N)model for their own advantages,this peper applies GM(1,N)prediction model based on the rough set theory.Taking advantages of the rough set theory to select the factors for the power system load forecasting.Through GM(1,N)prediction model,establishing the relation between the factors selected and the power load then compares it with GM(1,1).Finally,The result reflects the superiority of the rough set theory and dynamic grey model in the power system load forecasting,and it showed that the method accuracy is 94.055%.
