CAJ | 학술논문

对7次巨幅形变异常事件研究后认为:1)巨幅形变事件是指与其自身本底变化幅度相比相差悬殊的形变事件,如半年至一年的变化幅度,超过前3年内最大变幅的4倍,即可将此判定为巨幅形变事件;2)形变异常与干扰共存; 3)形变与干扰一般情况下难以区分和识别,但巨幅形变事件不是一般干扰单独引起的,出现巨幅形变事件,应首先考虑是否属于近区域、中短期的强震的前兆异常; 4)对于强震,近区域中短期应存在超大幅度的地壳形变,监测巨幅形变异常对地震预报意义重要.
대7차거폭형변이상사건연구후인위:1)거폭형변사건시지여기자신본저변화폭도상비상차현수적형변사건,여반년지일년적변화폭도,초과전3년내최대변폭적4배,즉가장차판정위거폭형변사건;2)형변이상여간우공존; 3)형변여간우일반정황하난이구분화식별,단거폭형변사건불시일반간우단독인기적,출현거폭형변사건,응수선고필시부속우근구역、중단기적강진적전조이상; 4)대우강진,근구역중단기응존재초대폭도적지각형변,감측거폭형변이상대지진예보의의중요.
7 events of crust deformation anomaly with great magnitude are given, and, these events always were followed by strong earthquake near the abnormal area in a medium-short period. The reason why such kind of important phenomena has not drawn more attention to yet is analyzed. Furthermore some new understandings of the relationship between crust deformation anomalies and disturbances are presented, and some conclusions and suggestions are given as follows.1)As concerning crustal deformation event of great magnitude, "great magnitude" means that the event has a big difference from the varied magnitude in normal time. The index has be given here that during a half year to one year, if the varied magnitude is more than 4 times of that for 3 years before the event, the event can be looked as crustal deformation event of great magnitude. 2) Crust deformation anomaly is coexistent with disturbances. 3) It is difficult to distinggaish between crust deformation and disturbance in most of situation. But crustal deformation of great magnitude has special value for strong earthquake prediction, because this kind of deformation can not be induced commonly by disturbance alone.When the crustal deformation of great magnitude appears, we should look it as the precursory anomaly first for near strong earthquake in a medium-short time period. 4) Before strong earthquake, crustal deformation of great magnitude should appear at some key points in the medium-short period. Monitoring such great deformation has important significance for effective prediction of strong earthquake.