CAJ | 학술논문

随着机动车保有量的增加,交通拥堵变成迫切需要解决的问题.道路交通流预测可以使交通管理部门提前制订相关政策,面对即将出现的交通问题提前采取管控措施,从而可以在一定程度上缓解交通压力.道路交通流预测预报是智能交通系统关键技术之一,短时预测是交通控制、车辆导航的技术基础.本文在对交通系统具有耗散系统特性分析的基础上,认为交通状态中存在混沌.本文运用混沌与分形理论恢复交通流量序列的动力学系统,并用多元局域预测法对时间序列进行预测,并实地采集数据运用模型进行分析校验.通过分析不同时间间隔的时间序列的评价指标,比较得出此法在2至5分钟内有较高的预测精度.
수착궤동차보유량적증가,교통옹도변성박절수요해결적문제.도로교통류예측가이사교통관리부문제전제정상관정책,면대즉장출현적교통문제제전채취관공조시,종이가이재일정정도상완해교통압력.도로교통류예측예보시지능교통계통관건기술지일,단시예측시교통공제、차량도항적기술기출.본문재대교통계통구유모산계통특성분석적기출상,인위교통상태중존재혼돈.본문운용혼돈여분형이론회복교통류량서렬적동역학계통,병용다원국역예측법대시간서렬진행예측,병실지채집수거운용모형진행분석교험.통과분석불동시간간격적시간서렬적평개지표,비교득출차법재2지5분종내유교고적예측정도.
With the ever-increasing motor vehicle population,traffic congestion is a severe problem of urban traffic.Tragic flow forecasting may help the traffic management branch to formulate relevant policies,optimize traffic management and.solve the traffic problem,at last release the traffic pressure in a certain extent.It is one of the important issues of intelligent transportation systems.Short-time traffic flow forecasting is the main technology of traffic control and vehicle-based navigation.This paper points out that transportation system is a dissipative system and the chaos exists in traffic status.It restores dynamical systems with chaos and fractal theory and predicts the traffic flow using multivariate time series of local prediction method.The basic traffic data are collected to test the effectiveness of the model,and the evaluation index of different time interval of the traffic flow series is analyzed.The proposed method has high prediction accuracy within 2 or 5 minutes level.