CAJ | 학술논문

目的研究中国大陆流感活动时空分布和季节性的流行特征及流感病毒传播规律.方法应用回顾性时空聚类分析方法探讨中国流感活动的时空分布特征,通过建立空间趋势面的方法,分析流感病毒在中国大陆扩散的总体空间趋势.结果中国大陆流感活动具有两种季节性流行模式.南方地区流感流行高峰主要在6-8月[儿科诊室流感样病例就诊比(ILI%)的RR=1.31,P<0.01;内科诊室ILI%的RR=1.74,P<0.01];北方地区流感流行高峰主要在12月至次年1月(儿科诊室ILI%的RR=1.45,P<0.01;内科诊室ILI%的RR=1.45,P<0.01).中国季节性流感病毒出现时间具有明显的由南向北先后出现的趋势.结论中国南方地区6-8月是流感防控重点时段,北方地区12月至次年1月是流感防控重点时段,同时应足够重视南方地区出现抗原变异株.
목적 연구중국대륙류감활동시공분포화계절성적류행특정급류감병독전파규률.방법 응용회고성시공취류분석방법탐토중국류감활동적시공분포특정,통과건립공간추세면적방법,분석류감병독재중국대륙확산적총체공간추세.결과 중국대륙류감활동구유량충계절성류행모식.남방지구류감류행고봉주요재6-8월[인과진실류감양병례취진비(ILI%)적RR=1.31,P<0.01;내과진실ILI%적RR=1.74,P<0.01];북방지구류감류행고봉주요재12월지차년1월(인과진실ILI%적RR=1.45,P<0.01;내과진실ILI%적RR=1.45,P<0.01).중국계절성류감병독출현시간구유명현적유남향북선후출현적추세.결론 중국남방지구6-8월시류감방공중점시단,북방지구12월지차년1월시류감방공중점시단,동시응족구중시남방지구출현항원변이주.
Objective To study the spatiotemporal distribution and seasonal characteristics of influenza and to explore its transmission patterns, in the mainland of China. Methods Spatiotemporal cluster methods and spatial trend surface methods were used to analyze the influenza surveillance data. Results There were a summer peak in the south from June to August (RRpsediatric=1.31, P<0.01; RRmternel=1.74, P<0.01) and a winter peak from December to January (RRpsediatric=1.45, P<0.01; RRmternel=1.45, P<0.01) in the northern part of the country, during every epidemic season. Influenza virus in mainland China seemed to spread from the southern to the northern parts of the country, in a progressing way. Conclusion In the southern part of the country, it is more important to take prevention and control measurements on influenza from June to August but for the northern part, the key period is from December to January. It is more important to timely identify the variation of the influenza virus, in the southern part of the country.