CAJ | 학술논문

采用故障树分析法,对引起鸟击飞机的各个因素进行系统分析,并建立了故障树.通过定性分析,可得引起顶事件发生的2580个最小割集.采用专家判断和模糊集理论相结合的方法,评估故障树底事件发生概率的模糊性,并以"垃圾堆对鸟的吸引"这一底事件为例,计算出其模糊失效率.通过定量分析,计算出顶事件的发生概率为0.00241,同时可计算各底事件的重要度.
채용고장수분석법,대인기조격비궤적각개인소진행계통분석,병건립료고장수.통과정성분석,가득인기정사건발생적2580개최소할집.채용전가판단화모호집이론상결합적방법,평고고장수저사건발생개솔적모호성,병이"랄급퇴대조적흡인"저일저사건위례,계산출기모호실효솔.통과정량분석,계산출정사건적발생개솔위0.00241,동시가계산각저사건적중요도.
By means of fault tree analysis method, this paper gives a systemic analysis of the relevant factors which cause the fault of bird strike aircraft, and its fault tree is also established. Through qualitative analysis, 2580 minimum cut sets can be obtained. Expert estimation method, combined with fuzzy sets theory, is adopted to assess the happening probability of the base events. The calculating of "waste landfill attracting bird"-one of the base events of bird-strike-aircraft, is given as an example of this method. Through quantitative analysis, the happening probability of the top event is 0.00241, and the importance degree of all base events can be analyzed.