兰州大学学报(自然科学版)
蘭州大學學報(自然科學版)
란주대학학보(자연과학판)
JOURNAL OF LANZHOU UNIVERSITY(NATURAL SCIENCES)
2009年
6期
1-7
,共7页
魏国孝%杨佳丽%徐涛%许翔%朱锡芬
魏國孝%楊佳麗%徐濤%許翔%硃錫芬
위국효%양가려%서도%허상%주석분
SWAT模型%径流模拟%葫芦河流域
SWAT模型%徑流模擬%葫蘆河流域
SWAT모형%경류모의%호호하류역
SWAT model%runoff simulation%Hulu River basin
利用SWAT模型模拟研究了甘肃葫芦河流域过去9年的径流变化.结果表明:20世纪80-90年代流域径流减少的主要原因是气候变化.在此基础上,根据未来不同气候情景的变化趋势,模拟了葫芦河1985年的径流变化.得出气温影响相对较小,降水变化对葫芦河流域径流量的影响较大,径流量随降水的增加而增大,随气温的升高而减小.在气温降低配合降水增加的情况下,径流响应最剧烈,且呈明显增加趋势;相反,气温升高且降水减少不利于径流的产生,减少了实测值的61%.
利用SWAT模型模擬研究瞭甘肅葫蘆河流域過去9年的徑流變化.結果錶明:20世紀80-90年代流域徑流減少的主要原因是氣候變化.在此基礎上,根據未來不同氣候情景的變化趨勢,模擬瞭葫蘆河1985年的徑流變化.得齣氣溫影響相對較小,降水變化對葫蘆河流域徑流量的影響較大,徑流量隨降水的增加而增大,隨氣溫的升高而減小.在氣溫降低配閤降水增加的情況下,徑流響應最劇烈,且呈明顯增加趨勢;相反,氣溫升高且降水減少不利于徑流的產生,減少瞭實測值的61%.
이용SWAT모형모의연구료감숙호호하류역과거9년적경류변화.결과표명:20세기80-90년대류역경류감소적주요원인시기후변화.재차기출상,근거미래불동기후정경적변화추세,모의료호호하1985년적경류변화.득출기온영향상대교소,강수변화대호호하류역경류량적영향교대,경류량수강수적증가이증대,수기온적승고이감소.재기온강저배합강수증가적정황하,경류향응최극렬,차정명현증가추세;상반,기온승고차강수감소불리우경류적산생,감소료실측치적61%.
Variation of runoff of Hulu River basin in Gansu Province in the last nine years was simulated by using the distributed hydrological model SWAT and the result shows that climate variation is the main cause for runoff decrease in the river basin from the 1980s to the 1990s. Then, the runoff variation of the Hulu River in 1985 was simulated according to the variation trend of climate condition. The result shows that the runoff of Hulu River basin is more sensitive to precipitation change than to temperature change.When the temperature is lower and the precipitation is more, the response of runoff is the most acute and the trend is obviously increasing. However, it will decline for about 61% of the measured value under the contrary situation.