CAJ | 학술논문

干旱是限制新疆阿勒泰地区农牧业生产可持续发展最主要的自然灾害之一，研究适合该区的干旱指标，是进行有效干旱监测的基础。利用阿勒泰地区7个气象台站1961--2009年的月降水量、气温资料，计算删和K指数，比较分析了5H和在该地区应用较好的K指数。结果表明：SPI计算简单，资料容易获取，而且计算结果与K指数有较好的一致性，能够较好地反映该地区干旱状况，特别是姗可以计算不同时间尺度的指标值，能够满足不同水资源状况分析的要求。对比分析了5种时间尺度的SPI值，发现SPI能较准确地反映该地区的旱涝趋势，尤其是3—6个月时间尺度的SPI值，能较好地反映该地区的干旱发展，12个月尺度对长期连续干旱监测较好。
간한시한제신강아륵태지구농목업생산가지속발전최주요적자연재해지일，연구괄합해구적간한지표，시진행유효간한감측적기출。이용아륵태지구7개기상태참1961--2009년적월강수량、기온자료，계산산화K지수，비교분석료5H화재해지구응용교호적K지수。결과표명：SPI계산간단，자료용역획취，이차계산결과여K지수유교호적일치성，능구교호지반영해지구간한상황，특별시산가이계산불동시간척도적지표치，능구만족불동수자원상황분석적요구。대비분석료5충시간척도적SPI치，발현SPI능교준학지반영해지구적한로추세，우기시3—6개월시간척도적SPI치，능교호지반영해지구적간한발전，12개월척도대장기련속간한감측교호。
Drought is one of the most important natural disasters that limit the sustainable development of farming and animal husbandry in Altay, and the study of an appropriate drought index is the base to an effective monitoring of drought condition. Using the monthly precipitation and temperature data from 1961 to 2009 that observed in seven meteorological stations of Altay,we counted SPI and K index, compared and analyzed SPI and K index. The results indicated that the calculation method of SPI was simple and the data was easily accessible, and the counting result was consistent with K index. It could also well reflect the drought condition. Especially, SPI could count the index of different time scale, and satisfied the analysis of different water resource condition. We compared SPI of five time scales and found that SPI reflected exactly drought and flood in this area. Especially, SPI of three months and six months could reflect the drought development, and SPI of twelve months was suitable for long term drought monitoring.