CAJ | 학술논문

利用奇异谱分析等方法，分析了青藏高原东部冬半年1967-1996年雪灾的气候特征。结果表明：雪灾的总趋势是增加的，特别是后冬，这可能是对全球气候变暖的响应。雪灾指数周期集中在2.0～3.6 a和5.4～7.5 a两个时段。后冬雪灾在1985/1986年前后存在着由偏少向偏多的突变。利用SSA-MEM方法可以预报雪灾冬半年未来2 a趋势，后冬未来1 a趋势。
이용기이보분석등방법，분석료청장고원동부동반년1967-1996년설재적기후특정。결과표명：설재적총추세시증가적，특별시후동，저가능시대전구기후변난적향응。설재지수주기집중재2.0～3.6 a화5.4～7.5 a량개시단。후동설재재1985/1986년전후존재착유편소향편다적돌변。이용SSA-MEM방법가이예보설재동반년미래2 a추세，후동미래1 a추세。
Using　　singular spectrum analysis, the climatic feature of snow damage in the east Qinghai-Xizang Plateau have been analysed during the winter half years of 1967—1996. The results show that general tendency of snow damage increases, specially in the late winter. This may respond to global warming. Its quasi-periods are main 2.0～3.1 and 5.4～7.5 years. There is an abrupt change of snow damage from below to above normal about 1985/1986. The snow damage anomaly has the trends for two year in winter half year and one year in the late winter by means of SSA-MEM technique predicting.