CAJ | 학술논문

用Ncep实况资料对2007年7月7～9日的天气形势和实测的6 h降水进行诊断分析,用WRF模式对发生在2007年7月8～9日的一次江淮降水进行数值模拟,并利用此次模拟的3 h次的输出结果从动力学和热力学方面对此次暴雨作诊断分析.结果表明:造成8日江淮大暴雨的直接的影响系统是850 hPa的切变线及切变线上的低涡;强降雨中心出现的位置跟低层辐合高层辐散出现的位置和最大垂直速度上升区有很好的一致性;锋面南方存在深厚的位势不稳定区域,一旦有抬升运动产生,便很容易激发出强烈的对流运动,从而产生强降水.
용Ncep실황자료대2007년7월7～9일적천기형세화실측적6 h강수진행진단분석,용WRF모식대발생재2007년7월8～9일적일차강회강수진행수치모의,병이용차차모의적3 h차적수출결과종동역학화열역학방면대차차폭우작진단분석.결과표명:조성8일강회대폭우적직접적영향계통시850 hPa적절변선급절변선상적저와;강강우중심출현적위치근저층복합고층복산출현적위치화최대수직속도상승구유흔호적일치성;봉면남방존재심후적위세불은정구역,일단유태승운동산생,편흔용역격발출강렬적대류운동,종이산생강강수.
Diagnostic analysis of the weather situation from 7th to 9th ,July,2007 and the observed precipitation every 6 h using the data provided by Ncep recording data, and then by the use of model WRF, a heavy rainfall numerical simulation in Yangtze River which occurred on 8-9 Jul 2007, diagnostic analysis had been made from the aspects of dynamics and thermodynamics using the simulation result every 3 h output. The results showed that the influencing system which resulting in storm rainfall was the shear line at 850 hPa and vortex on it; There was a good consistency between the location of the center of heavy rainfall and lower-level convergence, upper-level divergence and vertical ascent motion. A deep area of potential instability existing on the south of front, intense convective motion and heavy rainfall will be aroused in the case of uplift.