CAJ | 학술논문

本文利用天津1990-2009年的年度统计数据,运用相关分析和多元回归分析的方法分析了进出口贸易与外商直接投资之间的关系。研究结果表明,实际利用外商直接投资额对进出口贸易额均具有累积效应,同时对出口具有滞后效应。短期内,外商直接投资对天津的出口贸易具有替代效应;长期看,FDI对出口贸易具有明显的促进作用。实际利用外商直接投资额累计值对出口和进口均具有明显的带动效应,而对出口的作用多于进口。
본문이용천진1990-2009년적년도통계수거,운용상관분석화다원회귀분석적방법분석료진출구무역여외상직접투자지간적관계。연구결과표명,실제이용외상직접투자액대진출구무역액균구유루적효응,동시대출구구유체후효응。단기내,외상직접투자대천진적출구무역구유체대효응;장기간,FDI대출구무역구유명현적촉진작용。실제이용외상직접투자액루계치대출구화진구균구유명현적대동효응,이대출구적작용다우진구。
Based on the statistics of Tianjin from 1990 to 2009,this paper analyzes the impact of FDI on Import-Export trade in Tianjin by correlation and regression analysis.The results show as follows： there is a cumulative effect of FDI on Tianjin＇s import and export trade.At the same time,there is a lag effect of FDI on Tianjin＇s export trade.In the short term,there is a substitution effect of FDI on Tianjin＇s export trade.In the long term,there is a promotion influence of of FDI on Tianjin＇s import and export trade.Furthermore,the impact on export trade is more than it on import trade.