CAJ | 학술논문

2011年以来，在国际经济疲软和国内宏观调控的双重影响下，全国电力需求增速呈逐步回落态势。受电煤供应不足和来水偏枯影响，全国大部分省份出现电力供应缺口。预计2012年，随着宏观政策的预调、微调，我国经济增速出现大幅下滑的可能性较小，电力需求也不会出现像2008、2009年那样的明显回落。但由于煤电联动价格机制尚未解决，跨区输电项目滞后，加上水电来水的不确定性，2012年电力供需形势依然偏紧，电力缺口有可能进一步扩大。
2011년이래，재국제경제피연화국내굉관조공적쌍중영향하，전국전력수구증속정축보회락태세。수전매공응불족화래수편고영향，전국대부분성빈출현전력공응결구。예계2012년，수착굉관정책적예조、미조，아국경제증속출현대폭하활적가능성교소，전력수구야불회출현상2008、2009년나양적명현회락。단유우매전련동개격궤제상미해결，과구수전항목체후，가상수전래수적불학정성，2012년전력공수형세의연편긴，전력결구유가능진일보확대。
Since 2011, affected by the weak international economic demand and domestic macroeconomic regulation, the growth rate of electricity consumption has decreased steadily. Most provinces, however, has electricity shortfalls caused by shortage of water or coal. It is predicted that along with pre- and micro-adjustment of macroeconomic policies, it is less likely in 2012 that China＇s economic growth will slide substantially and the power demand growth will not slow down rapidly as it was in the year 2008 or 2009. But in 2012, electricity deficiency will remain in the country, because the unsolved problem of pricing mechanism of coal and electricity linkage, the lagged trans-region transmission projects and uncertainty of water for hydropower.