CAJ | 학술논문

[目的]该研究旨在利用1996-2007年省级历史数据探讨气候变化对小麦种植面积的影响。[方法]设立了一个面板计量经济模型，并用滞后一期变量和固定效应来控制不可观测因素的影响。【结果】研究结果表明，气温升高对小麦种植面积增长有正影响，而降雨量则没有统计上显著的影响。[结论]该研究为我国的小麦种植的决定因素分析提供了实证依据。
[목적]해연구지재이용1996-2007년성급역사수거탐토기후변화대소맥충식면적적영향。[방법]설립료일개면판계량경제모형，병용체후일기변량화고정효응래공제불가관측인소적영향。【결과】연구결과표명，기온승고대소맥충식면적증장유정영향，이강우량칙몰유통계상현저적영향。[결론]해연구위아국적소맥충식적결정인소분석제공료실증의거。
[Objective] This study aimed to explore the impact of climate change on wheat cropping by using province-specific historical data during 1996-2007. [Method] We established a panel data econometric model with lagged wheat cropping area and province-specific fixed-effects model to control the unobserved factors. [Result] The results showed that the temperature positively affects wheat cropping area, while precipitation does not have such impact. [Conclusion] The study provided empirical evidence for analysis of the determinants of wheat cropping area in China.