电力系统自动化
電力繫統自動化
전력계통자동화
AUTOMATION OF ELECTRIC POWER SYSTEMS
2011年
24期
12-16,52
,共6页
韩冬%马进%贺仁睦%郭润睿
韓鼕%馬進%賀仁睦%郭潤睿
한동%마진%하인목%곽윤예
随机响应面法%轨迹灵敏度法%不确定性分析%累积分布函数%蒙特卡洛法%电力系统仿真
隨機響應麵法%軌跡靈敏度法%不確定性分析%纍積分佈函數%矇特卡洛法%電力繫統倣真
수궤향응면법%궤적령민도법%불학정성분석%루적분포함수%몽특잡락법%전력계통방진
stochastic response sur{ace method (SRSM)%trajectory sensitivity method%uncertainty analysis%cumulativedistribution {unction%Monte Carlo method%power system simulation
随机响应面法可克服传统方法仿真次数多、时间长的缺陷,仅需少量次数仿真便可快速估计出响应的不确定度。但由于电力系统的复杂性和强非线性,随机响应面法用于电力系统仿真仍有若干问题值得深入探讨。为使随机响应面法得到更广泛的应用,文中以蒙特卡洛模拟作为参照,详细探讨了配置点选取、参数服从经验概率分布或参数具有相关性时的不确定度等问题。此外,结合轨迹灵敏度法提出了多参数不确定性分析的策略,可大大减少用于不确定性分析的输入参数个数。算例分析表明了随机响应面法的有效性和适用性。
隨機響應麵法可剋服傳統方法倣真次數多、時間長的缺陷,僅需少量次數倣真便可快速估計齣響應的不確定度。但由于電力繫統的複雜性和彊非線性,隨機響應麵法用于電力繫統倣真仍有若榦問題值得深入探討。為使隨機響應麵法得到更廣汎的應用,文中以矇特卡洛模擬作為參照,詳細探討瞭配置點選取、參數服從經驗概率分佈或參數具有相關性時的不確定度等問題。此外,結閤軌跡靈敏度法提齣瞭多參數不確定性分析的策略,可大大減少用于不確定性分析的輸入參數箇數。算例分析錶明瞭隨機響應麵法的有效性和適用性。
수궤향응면법가극복전통방법방진차수다、시간장적결함,부수소량차수방진편가쾌속고계출향응적불학정도。단유우전력계통적복잡성화강비선성,수궤향응면법용우전력계통방진잉유약간문제치득심입탐토。위사수궤향응면법득도경엄범적응용,문중이몽특잡락모의작위삼조,상세탐토료배치점선취、삼수복종경험개솔분포혹삼수구유상관성시적불학정도등문제。차외,결합궤적령민도법제출료다삼수불학정성분석적책략,가대대감소용우불학정성분석적수입삼수개수。산례분석표명료수궤향응면법적유효성화괄용성。
Despite the advantage of stochastic response surface method (SRSM) in overcoming the drawback of repeated simulation required by the conventional method by quickly estimating response uncertainty with only small amounts of simulation, it is worth further investigation for application in power system simulation because of the system's complexity and characteristics of multi-dimensionality and strong nonlinearity. In order to enable the SRSM to find even wider application, by referring to the Monte Carlo simulation, an in depth analysis is made of such problems as the selection of collocation points, parameter distribution in obeisance to empirical probability or the uncertainty when random inputs are correlated. In addition, by consulting the trajectory sensitivity method, a parameter uncertainty analyzing strategy capable of dramatic reduction in the number of uncertain inputs is proposed. The efficiency and validity of the SRSM are shown by case study results.