CAJ | 학술논문

选取1985—2009年间浙江省经济增长和环境污染数据，建立向量自回归模型（VAR），运用脉冲响应函数和预测方差分解，刻画了浙江省经济增长与环境污染在时序维度上的相互影响机制和动态相关性。结果表明，经济增长是影响浙江省污染排放量变化的重要原因，工业固体废弃物排放量、工业废水排放量和工业废气排放量的增加对经济增长也存在着反作用力。经济增长指标对解释环境污染指标排放的预测方差分解的贡献度较高，但环境污染指标排放对经济增长指标的预测方差的解释贡献度较小。
선취1985—2009년간절강성경제증장화배경오염수거，건립향량자회귀모형（VAR），운용맥충향응함수화예측방차분해，각화료절강성경제증장여배경오염재시서유도상적상호영향궤제화동태상관성。결과표명，경제증장시영향절강성오염배방량변화적중요원인，공업고체폐기물배방량、공업폐수배방량화공업폐기배방량적증가대경제증장야존재착반작용력。경제증장지표대해석배경오염지표배방적예측방차분해적공헌도교고，단배경오염지표배방대경제증장지표적예측방차적해석공헌도교소。
Choosing from 1985 -2009 in Zhejiang environmental indicators and economic growth indicators, thus establishing vector autoregressive （VAR） model, using impulse response function and forecast variance decomposition, the temporal dimen- sion of interaction mechanism and dynamic correlation effects between economic growth and environmental pollution in Zhejiang province was analyzed. The results showed that economic growth is an important factor responsible for the change of the pollutant discharge in Zhejiang. And on the other hand, the discharge of industrial solid waste, industrial waste water and industrial waste gas also affect the growth of economy. The indicators of economic growth can interpret a large part of the emission of pollution in- dicators, while the pollution indicators can only interpret a small part of the indicators of economic growth.