CAJ | 학술논문

随着我国社会经济的迅速发展，能源消耗带来的碳排放增加已经成为国际社会关注的焦点，控制和减少碳排放也相应成为一项日益紧迫的重大课题。山东省作为我国的经济大省和碳排放大省，面临着越来越严峻的减排压力。为此，采用迪氏对数指标分解法，建立山东省碳排放增量的因素分解模型，对1995—2009年间产业规模、产业结构、碳排放强度这三个主要因素对山东省碳排放增量的影响进行了定量分析。研究发现，产业规模的扩大是导致山东省碳排放量增加的主要因素，产业结构的调整并没有起到减少碳排放的作用，反而对碳排放量的增加有所促进，对碳排放起到决定性抑制作用的是碳排放强度的降低。最后根据研究结果提出减少山东省碳排放量的政策性建议。
수착아국사회경제적신속발전，능원소모대래적탄배방증가이경성위국제사회관주적초점，공제화감소탄배방야상응성위일항일익긴박적중대과제。산동성작위아국적경제대성화탄배방대성，면림착월래월엄준적감배압력。위차，채용적씨대수지표분해법，건립산동성탄배방증량적인소분해모형，대1995—2009년간산업규모、산업결구、탄배방강도저삼개주요인소대산동성탄배방증량적영향진행료정량분석。연구발현，산업규모적확대시도치산동성탄배방량증가적주요인소，산업결구적조정병몰유기도감소탄배방적작용，반이대탄배방량적증가유소촉진，대탄배방기도결정성억제작용적시탄배방강도적강저。최후근거연구결과제출감소산동성탄배방량적정책성건의。
With the rapid socio-economic development in China, the sharply increasing emission of carbon due to the rising consumption of energy has become a worldwide focus. Therefore, how to reduce carbon emission has become an increasingly urgent issue. As a big province with large amount of carbon emission, Shandong is facing more and more severe pressure to reduce CO2 emission. Thus, this article set up a decomposition model of carbon emissions for Shandong Province using LMDI method. The model is adopted to analyze the influence of economic development, industrial structural change, carbon emissions intensity change in Shandong from 1995 to 2009. The results show that the economic development is the dominant factor causing the rise of carbon emission and the industrial structural adjustment has not reduced Carbon emission, but speeded it up. The results also show that the reduction of carbon emission intensity has a decisive inhibitory action for carbon emission. In the end, some policy suggestions about how to reduce carbon emission are offered accordingly.