CAJ | 학술논문

地表可燃物载量的确定，是实现森林地表火蔓延预测的前提。已有火蔓延模型中，假定同一林分中可燃物分布是均匀的，不能准确描述可燃物载量的复杂空间分布。基于聚类分析方法，建立了一种根据易获取的几种林分因子来估算地表可燃物载量的方法。首先，对大兴安岭地区35块兴安落叶松林样地和21块樟子松林样地的树龄、郁闭度、胸径、树高等林分因子采用重心法进行系统聚类分析，分别将兴安落叶松林和樟子松林分为5类和7类。然后，计算得出每类可燃物的类中心，并以每类包含所有样地的可燃物载量的平均值来表示该类中心的载量，并由此建立可燃物载量与林分因子的对应关系。对聚类分析与线性回归预测模型从平均绝对误差AAD、标准误差SEE、模型预测稳定性指标SIF三方面进行对比，结果表明聚类分析模型要优于线性回归分析模型。
지표가연물재량적학정，시실현삼임지표화만연예측적전제。이유화만연모형중，가정동일림분중가연물분포시균균적，불능준학묘술가연물재량적복잡공간분포。기우취류분석방법，건립료일충근거역획취적궤충림분인자래고산지표가연물재량적방법。수선，대대흥안령지구35괴흥안락협송림양지화21괴장자송림양지적수령、욱폐도、흉경、수고등림분인자채용중심법진행계통취류분석，분별장흥안락협송림화장자송림분위5류화7류。연후，계산득출매류가연물적류중심，병이매류포함소유양지적가연물재량적평균치래표시해류중심적재량，병유차건립가연물재량여림분인자적대응관계。대취류분석여선성회귀예측모형종평균절대오차AAD、표준오차SEE、모형예측은정성지표SIF삼방면진행대비，결과표명취류분석모형요우우선성회귀분석모형。
Forest surface fuel load is one of the most important factors for forest fire spread prediction. In existing fire spread models, fuel load is usually assumed to be uniform in a region with the same forest type, although its spatial distribution is complex even in one kind of forest with different forest stand factors. In this article, a method for surface fuel load estimation by the forest stand factors is established based on the cluster analysis method. The stand factors used in cluster analysis include forest age, canopy density, average tree height and diameter at breast height which are all easy to be obtained. 35 Larix gmeli- nii plots and 21 Pinus sylvestris plots of Da Hinggan Mountains forests were used to carry on centroid cluster analysis and in re- sult they were divided into 5 and 7 clusters, respectively. The center of each cluster was calculated and its corresponding fuel load was represented by the average load of the plots grouped in this cluster. Finally, three statistical indicators, including the mean absolute error of the estimate, MAE, the standard error of the estimate, SEE, and the stable indicators of the estimate, SIE, were used to contrast the fitting errors of the cluster analysis method and the multiple linear regressions method. The re- sults show that the cluster analysis method is better than the latter one.