CAJ | 학술논문

对金秀夏季降水量，由计算自相关R（τ）确定韵律的方法，利用选出最大R（τ）作为周期进行叠加外延预测。经10a实际预测检验，预测与实况同号率达60％，据中国气象局2010年实行的新的短期气候预测评分方法评定，平均达71分。颇有使用参考价值，为提高预测和气象服务水平提供一种快捷方法。
대금수하계강수량，유계산자상관R（τ）학정운률적방법，이용선출최대R（τ）작위주기진행첩가외연예측。경10a실제예측검험，예측여실황동호솔체60％，거중국기상국2010년실행적신적단기기후예측평분방법평정，평균체71분。파유사용삼고개치，위제고예측화기상복무수평제공일충쾌첩방법。
Basing the precipitation data of Jinxiu county, with periodic overlapping prediction method, the forecast of last ten years summer rainfall was conducted. The results show that the same sign rate of predicts and the facts is 60%. Based a new scoring method of short-term climate prediction implemented by China Meteorological Administration in 2010, the average score with this forecast method is 70.