河北科技师范学院学报
河北科技師範學院學報
하북과기사범학원학보
JOURNAL OF HEBEI NORMAL UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY
2011年
3期
64-67,74
,共5页
于泉林%余金咏%齐慧霞%贺字典%周印富
于泉林%餘金詠%齊慧霞%賀字典%週印富
우천림%여금영%제혜하%하자전%주인부
玉米螟%气象条件%预测模型
玉米螟%氣象條件%預測模型
옥미명%기상조건%예측모형
Ostrinia furnacalis%meteorological conditions%forecast model
利用2001~2003年,2005~2007年唐山市玉田县植物保护站提供的玉米螟田间调查资料与唐山市玉田县气象台同期气象资料进行了相关分析,确定了影响唐山市玉田县玉米螟发生的主要因子,并建立了多元回归预报模式。结果表明,影响玉田地区1代玉米螟发生的主要气象因子是5月份月均气温、5月份月降水量,其结果与发生面积呈线性关系,建立的数学模型为:Y=88.162 7-0.376 9 X1+0.008 6 X2,拟合率为100.62%;影响2代玉米螟发生的关键气象因子是8月份气温,其与发生面积呈线性关系,建立的数学模型为:Y=-959.079 4+3.877 7 X1,拟合率为102.16%。
利用2001~2003年,2005~2007年唐山市玉田縣植物保護站提供的玉米螟田間調查資料與唐山市玉田縣氣象檯同期氣象資料進行瞭相關分析,確定瞭影響唐山市玉田縣玉米螟髮生的主要因子,併建立瞭多元迴歸預報模式。結果錶明,影響玉田地區1代玉米螟髮生的主要氣象因子是5月份月均氣溫、5月份月降水量,其結果與髮生麵積呈線性關繫,建立的數學模型為:Y=88.162 7-0.376 9 X1+0.008 6 X2,擬閤率為100.62%;影響2代玉米螟髮生的關鍵氣象因子是8月份氣溫,其與髮生麵積呈線性關繫,建立的數學模型為:Y=-959.079 4+3.877 7 X1,擬閤率為102.16%。
이용2001~2003년,2005~2007년당산시옥전현식물보호참제공적옥미명전간조사자료여당산시옥전현기상태동기기상자료진행료상관분석,학정료영향당산시옥전현옥미명발생적주요인자,병건립료다원회귀예보모식。결과표명,영향옥전지구1대옥미명발생적주요기상인자시5월빈월균기온、5월빈월강수량,기결과여발생면적정선성관계,건립적수학모형위:Y=88.162 7-0.376 9 X1+0.008 6 X2,의합솔위100.62%;영향2대옥미명발생적관건기상인자시8월빈기온,기여발생면적정선성관계,건립적수학모형위:Y=-959.079 4+3.877 7 X1,의합솔위102.16%。
Based on long-term field investigation data of Ostrinia furnacalis occurrence in Plant Protection Station of Yutian and the related meteorological data in Yutian meteorological center from 2001 to 2003,2005 to 2007,3 factors controlling Ostrinia furnacalis occurrence were analyzed and the model of Ostrinia furnacalis occurrence was established.The results showed that the intensity of Ostrinia furnacalis(1st generation) occurrence in current year was mainly related to the average temperature and rainfall of May.The forecast model of Ostrinia furnacalis was constituted using the regressive analysis method: Y=88.162 7-0.376 9 X1+0.008 6 X2.The model's fitting rate was 100.62%.The intensity of Ostrinia furnacalis(Second generation) occurrence in current year was mainly related to the average rainfall of August.The forecast model was: Y=-959.079 4+3.877 7 X1.The model's fitting rate was 102.16%.