CAJ | 학술논문

为了预防大停电事故的发生,必须在事故前建立可用于大停电预防控制的连锁故障分析模型.因此基于安全科学的事故链分析模型,提出基于网络潮流的事故链中间环节预测指标,用以在线构建电力系统事故链,从而形成网络事故链表,在此基础上可以定量分析电网连锁故障.该事故链生成方法以系统失稳为目标,指标的计算简单方便,可用于连锁故障的在线分析,可以为电网连锁故障的风险评估和预防控制提供有力支持,IEEE 39节点系统的仿真验证了该指标的有效性.
위료예방대정전사고적발생,필수재사고전건립가용우대정전예방공제적련쇄고장분석모형.인차기우안전과학적사고련분석모형,제출기우망락조류적사고련중간배절예측지표,용이재선구건전력계통사고련,종이형성망락사고련표,재차기출상가이정량분석전망련쇄고장.해사고련생성방법이계통실은위목표,지표적계산간단방편,가용우련쇄고장적재선분석,가이위전망련쇄고장적풍험평고화예방공제제공유력지지,IEEE 39절점계통적방진험증료해지표적유효성.
Cascading failure should be modeled before accident in order to preventing large scale blackout. Based on the probability analysis model of fault chain of security science, the prediction index of middle segments of fault chain based on flow of network is presented to establish the fault chains, in which the cascading failure probability is quantified. The method is simple to compute and is ended by the system collapse. The results can be used not only for on-line analysis of cascading failure, but also for risk assessment and preventive control. The simulation on IEEE 39 buses system testifies the validation of the proposed method.