CAJ | 학술논문

利用焦作市1980-2005年小麦白粉病发生程度资料和气候资料,采用次序统计量方法和Bayes判别准则,确定小麦白粉病等级与当地气候指标的定量关系,建立预测模型,得出模型中关键气象因子指标为:(1)前一年10月平均气温(T_(10))≥16.5℃;(2)当年3月气温(T_3)≤9.5℃;(3)前一年8、9、10月降水量之和(R_8+R_9+R_(10))≤180mm;(4)当年3月降水量(R3)≥25mm.当模型中有3个或4个指标满足,则小麦当年可能发生重度白粉病;当没有或只有1个指标满足,则不会发生小麦白粉病.对1980-2005年该地区小麦白粉病发生状况进行模拟和预报,历史拟合率达73%以上,2006年和2007年延伸预测结果与实际一致.
이용초작시1980-2005년소맥백분병발생정도자료화기후자료,채용차서통계량방법화Bayes판별준칙,학정소맥백분병등급여당지기후지표적정량관계,건립예측모형,득출모형중관건기상인자지표위:(1)전일년10월평균기온(T_(10))≥16.5℃;(2)당년3월기온(T_3)≤9.5℃;(3)전일년8、9、10월강수량지화(R_8+R_9+R_(10))≤180mm;(4)당년3월강수량(R3)≥25mm.당모형중유3개혹4개지표만족,칙소맥당년가능발생중도백분병;당몰유혹지유1개지표만족,칙불회발생소맥백분병.대1980-2005년해지구소맥백분병발생상황진행모의화예보,역사의합솔체73%이상,2006년화2007년연신예측결과여실제일치.
Based on the information of intensity of wheat powdery mildew and climate in Jiaozuo during 1980 and 2005,the quantitative relationship between wheat powdery mildew levels and the local climate indicators was identified by means of order statistical and Bayes criterion,and a prediction model was established. Four factors for prediction model were: (1)the average temperature of October last year (T_(10) )≥16.5℃,(2)the temperature of March this year( T_3) ≤9.5℃,(3)the sum of rainfall in August,September and October last year(R_8+R_9+R_(10))≤180mm,(4)the rainfall of March this year(R_3)≥25mm. A severe wheat powdery mildew disaster would take place if 3 or 4 factors were met at the same time,and the disaster would not happen if non or only 1 factor was met. The historical matching rate for the forecast results was over 88% during the 1980-2005. The forecasted results were in line with the factual records of 2006 and 2007.