CAJ | 학술논문

根据中国20个观测站点的木本、草本植物物候资料,结合气温、降水资料,预测了1989～2099年植物始展叶期、始花期物候,结果表明：未来我国气温、降水、季节开始时间变化,对我国植物物候期有明显的影响,其中气温对物候期的作用最为显著。春季气温升高,春季物候期提前,未来全国5区植物始展叶期、始花期均以显著的提前趋势为主,植物春季物候期提前主要是1989～2099年春季增温、春季开始时间提前所造成。
근거중국20개관측참점적목본、초본식물물후자료,결합기온、강수자료,예측료1989～2099년식물시전협기、시화기물후,결과표명：미래아국기온、강수、계절개시시간변화,대아국식물물후기유명현적영향,기중기온대물후기적작용최위현저。춘계기온승고,춘계물후기제전,미래전국5구식물시전협기、시화기균이현저적제전추세위주,식물춘계물후기제전주요시1989～2099년춘계증온、춘계개시시간제전소조성。
Based on plants phenological observation data of 20 stations in China and combined with daily temprature and precipitation data throughout China,the phenological phases during the beginning period of expanded leaves and first flowering period from 1989 to 2099 are predicted.The results show that the variation of temperature,precipitation and starting dates of each season would obviously affect the plants phenological phases,and the influence of temperature change on phenological phases would be most significant.When spring temperature increases,the spring phenological phases would advance.In five areas of China,the beginning period of expanded leaves and first flowering period would significantly advance in future because of temperature increase and spring starting date advance during 1989-2099.